United Airlines delivered a strong first quarter and beat rival Delta Air Lines, but like the rest of the industry, the outlook is much less positive in the face of rising oil prices and economic uncertainty.
United Airlines Reports Strong Q1 Results, But Fuel Costs Force Profit Forecast Cut
United Airlines reported a solid first quarter, beating expectations on both revenue and earnings as demand for premium travel and international flying remained robust.
Revenue rose to about $14.6 billion, up more than 10% year-over-year, while adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.19, also ahead of estimates. Pre-tax profit reached $870 million ($699 million net), with margins improving compared to last year.
In terms of Q1 2026, the news was very strong. United continues to benefit from strong demand, particularly in premium cabins and longhaul international markets.
Premium revenue rose double digits, alongside gains in business travel and loyalty program revenue, reinforcing the idea that “brand loyal” travelers are still willing to pay for higher-end products. CEO Scott Kirby has made his media rounds pointing to strong bookings as evidence that the broader economy remains resilient, at least for now.
But that is only part of the story.
Fuel Costs Are Harming 2026 Outlook
Despite the strong quarter, United sharply lowered its full-year profit forecast, citing surging jet fuel prices tied to the conflict in Iran.
The airline now expects full-year earnings of $7 to $11 per share, down from prior guidance of $12 to $14. Fuel costs alone increased by roughly $340 million in the first quarter compared to last year.
United is now planning for jet fuel prices around $4.30 per gallon in the second quarter, a level that necessarily shrinks margins since the ability to pass on fuel costs to customers is not instant…United does not expect to be able to re-capture the increase in fuel costs until the end of 2026.
That is forcing a series of defensive moves including capacity reductions and fare increases. The business is still strong…just much more expensive to run.
United Beats Delta…This Quarter At Least
In the horserace between Delta and United for industry domination in the USA, United won out this quarter. It’s revenue ($14.6 billion, up 10.6%) beat Delta’s ($14.2 billion, up 9%) as did its net income ($699 million versus $423 million).
Delta, however, stands likely to end the year with higher profits thanks to its own fuel refinery in Pennsylvania and more disciplined growth. While Delta revenue and profit is very close to United’s, it achieves those margins on flying fewer seats than United. United has said that its higher labor costs (flight attendants will soon vote on a new contract) has been factored into its forecast.
> Read More: Delta Air Lines Beats Q1 Earnings, Plans To “Meaningfully” Cut Growth As Fuel Costs Surge
CONCLUSION
United Airlines delivered a strong first quarter, with solid revenue growth and better-than-expected earnings. Even so, its stock tanked yesterday after it predicted lower growth for the full fiscal year thanks to higher oil prices.
Rising fuel costs are forcing United to cut its profit forecast, trim capacity, and consider significant fare increases. The business model is still working, but the margin for error is shrinking, which is more difficult for United than Delta because of its large slate of aircraft orders. If fuel prices remain elevated, this quarter may end up being the high-water mark for the year.
image: United
Tim… tell us how this is good for Delta…
Well, he did not disappoint.
yet another internet mouthpiece that can’t read income statements or balance sheets.
DL’s 1Q2026 total revenue was $15,854 which is clearly higher than UA’s.
wanna pick out the refinery? then pick out all of the other adjustments including UA’s sale/leaseback transactions that added hundreds of millions of dollars ($389M) to UA’s income statement.
In contrast, DL took a $550 million ACCOUNTING charge – no cash involved – to its income statement for its equity investments in other airlines. yes, DL’s equity in other airlines rises and falls but it has also has given DL a boost to its earnings.
and let’s keep in mind that UA flies 10% more capacity than DL so should have a much larger increase in revenue and capacity but does not.
and UA still is benefitting from UA employees accepting well below industry average compensation through their very ineffective unions. THAT will add hundreds of millions in ongoing costs plus increased retro for FAs – plus whatever the mechanics settle for.
and DL will indeed have a cost benefit as long as the Middle East mess goes on because of the refinery’s ability to reduce DL’s fuel costs and push refinery profits on non-jet fuel to the airline
No, UA did not financially outperform DL unless you cherrypick tidbits and ignore other things including context
There’s no need to be condescending, Tim. I was doing a non-GAAP comparison, which is apples to apples right? And I even said that DL is still primed to win the more important battle for FY26 profits thanks to its discipline and oil refinery. What am I reading incorrectly?
Gosh this was such a good reply to Tim’s crap. You never even said that United’s GAAP revenue was higher than Delta’s and he just went straight into it.
He also hates when people strip out the refinery revenue when it’s clearly an unrelated business to flying – we could come out and say Apple has more revenue than both these companies but its revenue comes from things that are unrelated to flying!
He then wants to strip out Delta’s losses on investments in airlines – without realising that burning shareholder capital by investing in bad airlines is generally not a good thing.
Matt, keep up the good work! Your article is good. You’ll just never be able to keep a guy whose ego and identity is so attached to one airline’s success.
it says right up in the corner non-GAAP/adjusted which adjusts out the refinery but not the cash implications of UA’s sales/leaseback. You do know the difference between GAAP and non-GAAP?
you do accurately note that DL had a higher operating profit margin
and Andy,
you do realize that UA tried to buy a refinery but couldn’t close the deal?
You and others love to argue how much UA makes from just flying passengers – while paying their labor less – and ignoring that UA also runs a credit card/loyalty program and an MRO.
Apples to apples is fine and that would be GAAP – which does show UA made more NET INCOME in 1Q2026 – but did it because DL took a non-cash accounting charge for its equity investments while UA did sale and leasedback transactions that benefitted its income statement at the cost of greater debt because leases are considered debt according to GAAP accounting standards.
Apples to apples is reading the statements as they accurately are or considering all of the adjustments.
“you do realize that UA tried to buy a refinery but couldn’t close the deal?”
Feel free to share a legit link to this, Tim. First I’ve heard of it.
Dying refineries like Trainer were easy to come by in the late teens but both AA and UA decided not to buy a refinery while Delta was trying to sell their refinery (hint hint — there’s a reason Delta didn’t want it but couldn’t sell it).
https://www.reuters.com/article/world/exclusive-delta-trying-to-unload-east-coast-refinery-sources-idUSKCN1PQ5PL/
People forget that Delta really doesn’t even use much, if any, of the Trainer refinery fuel. The refinery is in Philly,
It’s simply a hedge that Delta does that also happens to benefit the entire industry by having more avfuel in the entire market. It certainly can be a temporary benefit during a fuel spike time, but it’s largely just a cost to Delta that they wouldn’t have if they could get rid of the refinery, like they’ve tried but there’s a reason only Delta wanted this ancient refinery in 2012 when no one else did — and no one else still wants it today. It’s easy to play with the accounting on the refinery like Delta does to make it look like a great thing but the proof is in the pudding — Delta tried to sell it but couldn’t and the cost to clean up the site and shut it down is EXORBITANT.
Over the last 14 years, CEOs from Smizek to Parker to Kirby have been asked if they want to buy refineries and note the same thing — the entire industry benefits from Delta’s hedge bet and other airlines haven’t seen a reason to buy one.
Also… Tim, Jesus dude. We all knew the day would come when Delta would not be on top of the earnings table. Did you not prepare yourself mentally for this? You can’t honestly have expected Delta to stop the top dog financially for all time? That’s not how businesses work.
wow, Max.
UA tried to buy a Brazilian owned refinery along the Gulf Coast.
even Google knows it
“United has previously explored traditional refinery options, such as briefly considering one in 2012”
Trainer provides 75% of DL’s domestic jet fuel needs through direct production of jet fuel which is sent via pipelines to DL’s LGA, JFK and BOS hubs and via indirect exchange of non-jet fuel products.
I’m honestly shocked you don’t better understand how Trainer works for DL.
and tell us by in the next 3 quarters how the rest of the industry benefits from DL’s refinery. DL will have 30 cent/gallon lower jet fuel and that benefit won’t be shared w/ the industry.
as for earnings, I am more than happy if UA beats DL. My comment was about mixing and matching datapoints such as excluding the refinery income but not adjusting out all of UA’s sale/leaseback transactions including the impact on cash flow.
Even the table Matthew posted is a mish mash of “included and excluded” metrics. DL’s refinery does contribute to its operating margin but the total revenue excludes the refinery income.
And let’s not forget that UA still is paying tens of thousands of employees less than DL.
Hopefully Matthew and you picked up that DL and UA spent almost identical amounts on labor expense for the 1st quarter but UA had tens of thousands more employees, esp. considering that DL owns a regional airline but UA does not.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that Kirby has benefitted from the incompetence of UA’s unions; UA’s profits will be a whole lot lower WHEN they finally get around to paying their people industry standard wages and benefits.
“There’s no need to be condescending, Tim.”
10/10. No notes. *chef’s kiss*
I hope Delta is paying you some serious money if they aren’t why get so riled up. Who cares who came out on top the point is both these carriers did well in Q1 despite some challenging headwinds both just banked some serious money for employee profit sharing meanwhile over at American they banked nothing for their employees.
Delta is resting on its laurels, Ed Bastian has done little in his tenure as CEO to take Delta to the next level. Meanwhile United and Kirby have used these past few years during and after the pandemic to erase the lead Delta had coming into the pandemic. Delta has been far too conservative post pandemic, they don’t have the aircraft coming in in large numbers to keep up with United’s growth. United has closed the premium gap between themselves and Delta. Delta has been slow when it comes to increasing premium seating on their aircraft, 29 D1 season on their A339NEO, 32 D1 seats on their A359s which they now just increased to 40D1 seats which is still less than the 48 Polaris seats United has on their much smaller 789s. How long has United be flying their high J 763s now here we are in 2026 and the are rumors Delta may put 50 or 60 D1 seats on some future A339NEO deliveries. They have outdated product on their A330CEOs a product Delta should have gotten rid of and installed suites during the pandemic they didn’t. Meanwhile over at United did they completely eradicated IPTE and a majority CO’s diamond seating on a majority widebodies during covid which set them up to takeoff after the pandemic. I get the 763 situation at Delta they were going to retire them they decided not to retire but did they ever really have enough widebodies on order to ever retire their 763 fleet by 2025/26? United has more premium seats and what was once a Delta strong suit where Delta was selling more D1 seats while United it was easier to get upgraded into Polaris has now shifted to the point its now almost impossible to get upgraded in to Polaris nowadays on long haul international flights so those extra Polaris seats are now generating more revenue for United meanwhile Delta has 40 D1 seats on their A359s. And what about the A35Ks United will be able to command a premium on top of a premium for their Polaris Studio seats of which there are 8. Where is the Delta One Studio they are the last airline of the US3 to reveal their new long haul product and what a disappointment that reveal was. Where is Delta’s version of SkyCouch all of this once it is fully rolled out at United will help United pull even further away from Delta and the A35K presents Delta with the perfect opportunity to hit the reset button and what do they do what to they show their customers nothing at all. Their A35ks will do nothing to close the premium gap between themselves and United’s 789Ps.
What has Ed Bastian done since he’s taken over Delta to move that airline to the next level? That is a difficult question to answer but a very easy question to answer if you ask what has Scott Kirby done to move United to the next level since being named CEO.
Bastian has been the CEO of DL for 10 years and DL most certainly has made big changes and improvements over that time.
DL already had done a lot of improvement soon after it emerged from chapter 11 in 2007. When you look at the last 5 years, yes, UA has improved the most – but they also started from a much lower place.
and some people still can’t accept that businesses, like civilizations ebb and flow and rise and fall.
UA execs want everyone to believe that they have reached the pinnacle of perfection and success but verifiable data says that is just not the case.
The real stories of improvement in the industry will be from AA and WN in the next 5 years. AA just turned in some pretty good financials – not earning much but they are fixing the revenue problem.
Given how much UA has focused on killing AA and all of the ultra low cost carriers, it is UA that faces the greatest challenge to its perceived (not actual) superiority.
It is much harder for someone that is at the top to keep ascending as steep and that is true for DL today and will be for UA over the next 3-5 years – precisely the time that AA and WN will be moving up much more aggressively.
numbers matter but picking out a datapoint and time period to the exclusion of context proves nothing.
I love Delta I fly on both Delta and United but I have to say you need to pull your head out of Delta’s rear end and realize they’ve been caught asleep at the controls. Why didn’t Delta install D1 suites on their A330CEO fleet during the pandemic when they knew United was going full steam ahead with Polaris. That wasn’t rumor that was actually stated by United they had no intentions on stopping Polaris installation during the pandemic. Even a blind person could have see the impact a United with Polaris installed on every widebody would have on Delta. Why has it taken them until 2026 to even announce the start of the project which won’t be completed until early 2029? Again I’m willing to give you the 763 fleet as the plans surrounding that fleet type changed. The plans around the A330CEOs never changed, Delta thought their product was superior and they never envision the day when United of all airlines would be on the same pedestal as them. Delta never envisioned the day when United would be selling more premium seats specifically Polaris seats than Delta One seats. Not that Delta isn’t selling D1 seats they are but United has more Polaris seats to sell which is helping them pull closer to Delta when looking at revenue.
And lets go back to the A35Ks please tell me Delta has something up their sleeve to compete with Polaris Studio seat, please tell me Delta has something up their sleeve to compete with United’s version of SkyCouch. United is showing Delta its hand and still Delta has done nothing yet to respond. If Delta’s A35Ks show up with no D1 studio and no version of SkyCouch I would even say if their A330CEOs after their refurbishment don’t at the very least have some version of SkyCouch Delta becomes a middle of the pack airline and United takes over as America most premium brand. Delta has a real opportunity here to truly elevate their onboard product on their A35ks but also on their A330CEOs if they would include D1 studios on both planes and some version of SkyCouch. Both of these are premium revenue drivers.
did it occur to you that companies invest in products because doing so allows them to generate higher profits and not just because some people think that someone’s product isn’t as good as the competition?
DL earned $700 million more in profits on its international system than UA for just the first 3 quarters of 2025. $1.7 billion in profits for DL and $1 billion.
UA has a much larger international network than DL and yet UA does not get a revenue premium.
DL clearly HAS NOT NEEDED to send money upgrading its product any earlier than they are because DL has had a profit premium not just to UA but the entire US industry.
If people quit buying DL’s services, then there would be plenty of indication that DL’s strategies aren’t working…
but that is not happening.
that is just a basic understanding of business that applies to all industries.
Dude i see you on these sites being crazy cray dude. You gotta chill. You a ramper?
Spectrum Boy is triggered by facts again…ouch. Maybe you can find some safe space with Georgia Klan Air, who not only have more racial bias complaints to the Feds than the other three majors COMBINED, but had another filed this week. It must really hurt that your dad’s airline came in second again. Maybe a lollypop from UA’s kids flyer pack will help…
The way he reacted, you’d think Matthew had insulted his mother.
I honestly don’t get the sycophancy for some airlines by some posters. It is a business, and they do not care about you personally. I have status on UA, AA, and DL sadly (I fly too much) and know, being a C-suite guy myself in business for decades, they only care about while I am spening 10ks$ on their airlines. After that, buy-bye.
It is not a religion…it is a form of transport, with execs who do not even know most of these avgeeks exist. But Spectrum buy is fun to trigger.
I’m with you. It seems 90% of posters either have one airline they really love and/or one they really hate. My European trips always involve DL because of the KL/AF connection. I’ve flown AA and UA twice post-COVID to Australia/NZ. I’ve flown all 3 on domestic trips. I have yet to see that much of a difference. I will be less likely to fly UA guven their new policy of lower earnings for non-card holders.
Please delete from your mind my UA comment. I just was looking at a possible reward-miles trip on UA. A one-way domestic F trip was 47K miles, but 27K if you have one of their credit cards. The Explorer card costs $150 after the first year. But, you can pay for the card in exchange for 10K miles. So, having the card would have saved me enough miles to pay for the card for two years. Plus, it would give me access to their lounge twice each year. And, I only lack lounge access for one r/t a year. I’m seriously rethinking my avoidance of UA. This is twice in a week I have said I was wrong. That’s more than Trump has admitted being wrong ever.
The “United Next” industrial plan that is transforming the airline into a high-margin, premium-focused global leader, is working well so far, but the year is not over yet, of course.