Philippine Airlines is joining the oneworld alliance in 2027, a welcome and somewhat surprising development that gives oneworld a stronger Southeast Asia presence. But does it mean American Airlines will finally launch Manila service? Not unless the carrier wants to lose money on it…
Philippine Airlines Joins oneworld, But Will American Airlines Fly To Manila?
Philippine Airlines will join the oneworld alliance in 2027, adding a new Southeast Asian carrier to an alliance that has been gaining notable momentum lately.
As Philippine Airlines announced, PAL will become the 16th full member of the alliance and only the second full oneworld member based in Southeast Asia, joining Malaysia Airlines.
For oneworld flyers, this is good news. Once integration is complete, members should be able to earn and redeem miles across oneworld programs on Philippine Airlines, while elite members should receive the usual alliance benefits like priority check-in, lounge access, and preferred seating.
PAL Holdings President Lucio C. Tan III called the move transformative:
“This is a defining and transformative moment for Philippine Airlines. Becoming a member of the oneworld Alliance and strengthening Southeast Asia’s representation within the group significantly brings the Philippines and the region closer to the world like never before. Together with our partners, we will deliver greater choice, consistent journeys, and a world-class travel experience that reflects the warmth of Filipino hospitality.”
While “transformative” may be a stretch, this is certainly a huge deal for PAL. American Airlines CEO Robert Isom, who currently serves as rotating Chairman of oneworld, framed the move as a strategic Asia-Pacific expansion:
“PAL’s entry into oneworld supports our long-term strategic growth and strengthens our connectivity across key markets in the Asia Pacific region. The airline has a proud heritage and will serve a critical role in our Southeast Asia network.”
That is all true. PAL gives oneworld a useful network in the Philippines and beyond, and it fills a gap in Southeast Asia where oneworld has long been weaker than Star Alliance and SkyTeam.
Does This Mean American Airlines Will Fly To Manila?
The obvious question is whether this finally opens the door for American Airlines to launch Manila service.
I understand why people are asking.
American is cancelling its Doha service and has said a new destination is coming. Philippine Airlines joining oneworld turns Manila into a partner hub of sorts. United already flies San Francisco – Manila and appears to be doing well enough to support as second daily flight. Delta plans to launch Los Angeles – Manila in 2027. So why not American?
Because the economics look difficult (they look difficult for Delta too…).
American’s only West Coast hub is Los Angeles, and AA has already tried and failed to build a meaningful transpacific gateway there. It has pulled back from LAX again and again, and launching Los Angeles – Manila would mean going head-to-head against Philippine Airlines and Delta in a market where American would undoubtedly have a cost disadvantage versus its new oneworld partner.
Dallas/Fort Worth is another possibility. It is American’s mega-hub and would offer enormous connectivity. But DFW – Manila is roughly 8,300 miles, which would make it American’s longest route. That is a very long flight to operate profitably, especially in a high-fuel environment and with American’s current longhaul economics.
Phoenix? Charlotte? Chicago? Chicago O’Hare (ORD) to Manila would be 8,132 miles and it would be a jab to United Airlines, but Chicago has only the seventh-largest Filipino population in the United States…four of the top six are in California (Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, and San Jose).
As One Mile At A Time rightly points out, AA cannot even make Hong Kong work. American no longer flies to Hong Kong despite its partnership with Cathay Pacific. If American could not make Hong Kong work, I have a hard time seeing Manila as a viable new route.
PAL already understands the Philippines market better than AA perhaps ever will. If oneworld wants more U.S.-Philippines connectivity, it may make more sense for PAL to add or strengthen U.S. service than for American to fly ultra-longhaul routes that do not make economic sense.
CONCLUSION
Philippine Airlines joining oneworld is a very positive development. It gives the alliance a stronger Southeast Asia presence, gives frequent flyers more earning and redemption opportunities, and creates better connectivity to and within the Philippines.
But I am not optimistic about American Airlines launching Manila service, even with an extra aircraft after its Doha suspension.
LAX – Manila would be brutally competitive. DFW – Manila would be very long and expensive to operate and I don’t see traffic in ORD. American has already retreated from much of Asia, and even its Cathay Pacific partnership did not save Hong Kong.
Could American add Manila anyway? Sure. American does not always act rationally, and there is a competitive argument for not letting United and Delta dominate the nonstop U.S.-Philippines market. But if we see more nonstop U.S.-Philippines flying, my guess is that Philippine Airlines is more likely to do the flying than American Airlines.
image: PAL
Personally, I’d rather see PAL be the oneworld airline on the MNL-US routes; AA should let them (as they should let QR handle all US-DOH flights, etc.)
Now, I wish AAL would start something, anything, to Africa, like, JFK-CPT, just so they have a foot-hold on the continent. Think of all the lovely safaris, delicious wine tastings, views of Table Mountain and Camps Bay… ahhh.