Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy is trying to put a positive spin on rising jet fuel prices. The problem is that his argument does not hold up. Higher costs do not magically lead to lower prices.
Sean Duffy Claims Higher Jet Fuel Prices Will Make Airfare Cheaper. That Makes No Sense
In a recent Fox News interview with Peter Doocy, Duffy acknowledged that jet fuel prices have spiked due to geopolitical tensions, but suggested that this could ultimately lead to cheaper airline tickets in the long run. His reasoning? Airlines are “eating the cost” now, and once the situation stabilizes, fuel prices could fall below prior levels, making travel cheaper for consumers.
Doocy: “So let’s start here. The strait is closed, the strait is open, the strait is closed again. Now there’s some bad news from Delta Air Lines, there’s this Bloomberg story, the quote is ‘we have to find ways to get that cost passed through to consumers,’ Delta CEO Ed Bastian said, ‘It won’t happen overnight.’ Secretary Duffy, that’s not good.”
Duffy: “So first off, a lot of the carriers are eating the cost increase of jet fuel right now, good side is we have great supply chains for jet fuel into the US, that’s not always the story in the rest of the world, because of Donald Trump’s energy dominance initiatives that he started over a year ago. But listen, we’re having a small spike in jet fuel. But if you look in the out years, we think once this conflict is over, we’re going to see jet fuel go lower than it was before the Iran conflict, so yes, a small disruption, hopefully for a short period of time, but in the long run, it becomes cheaper for Americans to travel because of decreased jet fuel prices.”
That sounds nice…but it ignores how airline pricing actually works.
Duffy is correct that airlines do not necessarily price tickets based on their costs. Instead, they price based on what consumers are willing to pay. That is why flights often operate at a loss and why fares fluctuate wildly even on the same route. So yes, airlines can “eat” higher fuel costs for a period of time. But that does not mean those costs disappear.
But if fuel prices stay elevated, airlines have limited options:
- Raise fares where they can
- Cut capacity to push fares higher
- Add fees (which we are already seeing with increased baggage fees and a new “basic” premium cabin fare category)
- Or simply lose money
None of those lead to “cheaper” tickets…
In fact, the most likely outcome of sustained high fuel prices is reduced capacity. And when capacity drops, prices go up. It is basic supply and demand, right?
The “Long Run” Argument Falls Apart
Duffy’s argument hinges on a big assumption: that once this conflict ends, fuel prices will fall not just back to normal, but below where they were before.
Even if that happens, there is no guarantee airlines will pass those savings along to consumers.
Why would they? If airlines have spent months absorbing losses, they are far more likely to use lower fuel costs to rebuild margins than to suddenly slash fares.
That is especially true if weaker carriers fail or shrink during the downturn, leaving less competition in the market.
Less competition does not lead to lower prices.
CONCLUSION
There is a version of this story that makes sense. Fuel prices spike, airlines absorb some of the cost, prices eventually stabilize, and fares normalize. That’s an absolute best case scenario that I do not see happening as the ceasefire between Iran and the USA appears on teh brink of collapse after Iran humiliated Trump concerning the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
But the idea that higher jet fuel prices today will somehow lead to cheaper tickets tomorrow requires a chain of assumptions that simply do not line up with how the airline industry works.
You can spin it however you want, but the higher costs airlines are facing today will not make airfare cheaper even if the war miraculously ends tomorrow. We are being gaslighted…
Hat Tip: One Mile At A Time
What did one expect from this administration? Par for the course.
But, but… He only hires ‘the best’ people… *facepalm*
Congratulations Transportation Secretary Duffy on prez-splainin how everything is better than fine. Also compliments on keeping your job another day
Sean Duffy lied. Chris Wright told the truth. We’ll see which one is still there in June.
Hint, it won’t be the right one (pun fully intended).
I read this in a reality-television-promo voice… “tune in next episode…”
(I wonder if anyone found the hidden immunity idol yet.)
Gaslighting at it’s best.
A competitive market means that if fuel costs do indeed drop post-conflict, ticket prices will also drop. That’s because competitors who don’t drop prices will lose to similarly situated competitors who do. If, for a route from ATL to ORD, Delta doesn’t drop its prices when United does, it will lose business to United. And one or the other company will be able to drop ticket prices when fuel costs also drop, reducing their marginal costs of operation.
If you don’t think fuel prices will drop post-conflict to below where they were prior, then say that. But that’s a different issue than claiming the laws of economics don’t apply.
Dishonest Trump-bashing is still dishonesty.
I agree with the first two paragraphs. The kast line is pretty much a tautology. But, while Matthew (like me) is not Trump fan, I don’t see the intent here to bash Trump. But I agree with the economic points you make.
I’m not here to bash Trump, nor do I disagree with the general principle of supply/demand, but I also think just as carriers moved in lock step to recently raise baggage fees, the idea is fanciful that they will lower fares even if oil prices retreat, especially if Spirit is dead. I also think there is absolutely no warrant to say that even if the war ends tomorrow, oil prices will drop to below what they were before the war. The entire “theory” is based on delusion and what makes it worse is that I think the administration knows better but is still issuing these talking points to gaslight us.
Baggage fees differ from ticket prices because they don’t as significantly affect consumer buying decisions, being much easier to hide. A consumer using Google Flights can easily see whether United or Delta is charging more for the ATL to/from ORD ticket and choose accordingly. But bag-fee differences don’t appear on Google Flights or OTAs, plus can be avoided with status or credit cards, while fare differences cannot.
You claim that “the idea is fanciful that they will lower fares even if oil prices retreat, especially if Spirit is dead.” But I think what you’re implying is that the airlines won’t lower prices if they aren’t competing on price. Which makes sense–if no competition on prices means no reason for airlines to lower prices, even if they can because margin costs have dropped due to lower fuel prieces, they aren’t going to do so. But again, what I said was assuming there’s a “competitive market.” Which there’s definitely going to be on some routes (e.g., NYC to LAX), but not all routes.
Oil prices could certainly drop to pre-Iran levels if the current Iranian theocracy/IRGC regime loses power, in part due to the following:
(A) Houthis can no longer threaten Red Sea shipping b/c they collapse from lack of funding from current Iranian regime
(B) Iraqi/Syrian Shiite militias can no longer threaten Iraq/Syrian oil production b/c they collapse from lack of funding from current Iranian regime
(C) Iranian oil production increases b/c of foreign (especially Gulf State) investment permitted due to regime change
(D) Gulf States and Saudis/Syrians/Iraqis increase production due to increased investment from funds diverted from defense spending, a reallocation permitted by change in the Iranian regime
(E) Russia-Ukraine war ends in part b/c Russia loses its main supplier of cheap drones (current Iranian regime)
Whether the current Iranian regime loses power is unknown, of course, but it isn’t implausible. As the current negotiations show, the civilian government and the normal Iranian army is apparentely at odds with the IRGC/theocracy over whether to negotiate an end to the war.
“fanciful” – I admire your stunning ability to understate, sir.
You must see the president has his fiction delivered via a surrogate to avoid responsibility for his words. If he thinks he is being dishonestly ” bashed ” is is free to step up and own the propaganda that this administration spreads .
Too bad his base is left to defend this lack of courage
You refer to a “competitive market.” I agree that input prices likely will have an effect on fares both up and down. But, the airline industry is mire an oligopoly than other forms. Prices are sticky. That’s why airfare prior to recent changes have been lower, adjusted for inflation, than 20 years ago. It wouldn’t surprise me if this stickiness means fares don’t see a lot of downward trending after oil stabilizes.
Well, nonsense is everything one might expect when watching Fox News.
Could something like this be possible given that airlines have reacted to the increased fuel expenses by raising ticket prices, cutting services, and hiking baggage fees, with some industry leaders fearing airline failures?
Meanwhile, AC has announced a temporary suspension of flights from Toronto and Montreal to New York’s JFK, citing rising fuel prices. → https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/17/air-canada-suspending-flights-fuel-prices
And Norse just suspended service from Los Angeles.
That’s right. These are really tough times for Norse Atlantic Airways, which is getting smaller and smaller.
Unlike Delta and United, Norse doesn’t seem to be run by a pack of weasels. of course they want – and ultimately need – to earn a profit but Norse seems to have a goal of providing actual value to passengers, a ludicrous concept for The Big 3 in the USA for instance.
Another administration stooge who’s either utterly unqualified for the job their in or unwilling to be honest about their job. Good thing we’re in this conflict, with clear goals and well-considered plans to counter the consequences.
He’s definitely one that’s drinking the orange-aid. Still unbelievable how many others are drinking it as well.
1. Duffy is a silver fox. AND He was a cutie 20+ years ago on MTV.
2. America – where dreams come true for ex-reality TV show contestants!
3. Lower air fares with high oil prices is … dumbfuckery!
“Iran and the USA appears on teh brink of collapse after Iran humiliated Trump concerning the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.”
Do you drop and occasional “teh” in your articles to pretend we aren’t reading AI generated articles?
No dear, I write my own articles.