United Airlines is adding over 800 aircraft to its fleet over the next decade, but many smaller cities that were once served via United Express will not return to the route map.
United Airlines COO: “Saturated” Domestic Network Will Lead To “Disproportional” Focus On Longhaul Flights
In speaking to the media about United’s latest aircraft order, United’s Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella emphasized that “disproportional growth” would continue to be directed toward long-haul international flight. Nocella called the domestic market “saturated” and “mature.” That assessment is driven not primarily by competition, but by the increasing lack of space at United’s hub airports to accommodate more flights. Nocella explained:
“The country is just not building a lot more runways and that’s just going to cause us to need to upgauge our aircraft to respond to growing demand.”
But large aircraft tend not to work well in smaller markets. Since the pandemic, United has cut service to:
- Arizona
- Flagstaff (FLG)
- Arkansas
- Texarkana (TXK)
- California
- Santa Rosa (STS)
- Stockton (SCK)
- Colorado
- Alamosa (ALS)
- Pueblo (PUB)
- Florida
- Destin-Fort Walton Beach (VPS)
- Tallahassee (TLH)
- Hawaii
- Hilo (ITO)
- Idaho
- Twin Falls (TWF)
- Indiana
- Evansville (EVV)
- Kentucky
- Paducah (PAH)
- Louisiana
- Alexandria (AEX)
- Monroe (MLU)
- Michigan
- Kalamazoo (AZO)
- Lansing (LAN)
- Muskegon (MKG)
- Minnesota
- Rochester (RST)
- Missouri
- Cape Girardeau (CGI)
- Columbia (COU)
- Fort Leonard Wood (TBN)
- Nebraska
- Kearney (EAR)
- New York
- Ogdensburg (OGS)
- Plattsburgh (PBG)
- South Dakota
- Pierre (PIR)
- Watertown (ATY)
- Texas
- Abilene (ABI)
- College Station (CLL)
- Killeen (GRK)
- San Angelo (SJT)
- Virginia
- Staunton/Waynesboro (SHD)
- Washington
- Everett (PAE)
- West Virginia
- Clarksburg (CKB)
- Lewisburg (LWB)
- Wisconsin
- Eau Claire (EAU)
- Wausau (CWA)
Even before the pandemic, United eliminated service to many cities when it retired its fleet of Embraer EMB 120 Brasilia turboprops.
Service on these smaller routes has been further compromised by a pilot shortage in which many regional jets are sitting idle because there are not sufficient pilots to fly them. United has also accelerated its retirement of the unpopular 50-seat jets like the Embraer ERJ-135/145 and the Canadair Air CRJ-50, known by travelers as the “Devil’s chariot” for its tight and uncomfortable seating. Finally, a scope clause in its contract with pilots prohibits the addition of larger regional jets without a corresponding increase in the number of mainline pilots.
Live And Let’s Fly later had a one-on-one conversation with Nocella and I asked about whether we could expect the domestic market to rebound or whether United would be more of a point-to-point carrier. His answer was a candid no.
Nocella reiterated that infrastructure constraints including a shortage of air-traffic controllers, congested airspace, and limitations on runways and airport gates will get worse as multiple US carriers expand through the remainder of this decade. Without new runway and terminal construction, there simply isn’t room for these flights and therefore service to smaller domestic markets will simply not be tenable via larger hubs.
Even cities that currently support service will likely see fewer frequencies with larger aircraft.
This problem may be most acute at Newark Liberty International Airport, but also impacts Chicago O’Hare, Denver, and Los Angles, according to Nocella.
“Such capacity constraints put a strain on the traditional hub-and-spoke model.”
However, Nocella sees an opportunity for new entrants to the market like Breeze Airways, whose business model is built upon point-to-point connections between smaller cities that avoid congested hubs.
“There will be an opportunity for smaller carriers to offer direct service between cities we used to serve, but that will not be United.”
The future of United is in longhaul travel, with emphasis on local markets and feeder traffic from larger cities. The era of bringing in travelers via regional jets from small cities and towns to United hubs will likely never return to what it once was.
This dilemma is not unique to United in the USA, but takes on special precedence considering United operates nearly as many widebody jets than American and Delta combined and of the “Big 3” US carriers is the airline most focused on longhaul travel.
CONCLUSION
If you are hoping United will return to cities like College Station, Eau Claire, or Santa Rosa, the word from Nocella will likely be disappointing. Faced with capacity restraints that will only grow worse as the 2020s progress coupled with a pilot shortage and the growing relative cost to operate regional jets, there is little likelihood that United’s domestic route network will ever return to be pre-pandemic form.
Well, it’s good that they have a plan. Let’s see if Mike Tyson’s statement about plans is a relevant analogy.
i’m not sure how that squares with their previous predelection of darkening the skies with 50 seat rj’s “because we can’t do without the flow” from the small cities How does he explain away that they no longer need the feeder traffic generated by the hubs? I’m all for less route and hub complexity, it makes the flight more likely to be on schedule, but can the wall street whipper -snappers swallow the explanation light given for abandoning that feed?
The small cities they cut likely weren’t providing much feed. The model is still very much about feeding traffic though hubs.
Based on the list of cuts and their enhanced profits since eliminating the small cities a few years ago now, they have a better view of their future without Peoria and Ogdensburg. The 50 seat order book? I see it working where it can… Washington Dulles and Houston where there is still a lot of capacity opportunities with the infastructure to support it.
“Live And Let’s Fly later had a one-one-one conversation with Nocella and I asked about…”
Who was the third person?
We refer to ourselves interchangeably.
My pronouns are we/our.
Best. Comment response. Ever.
It’s the royal we.
The funny thing is, many of these airlines are still served by Contour Airlines, which has an agreement with AA…so I guess United is conceding some of that feeder traffic to AA by leaving these airports?
Sorry, meant to say many of these airports are still served…
When he said the market is “mature” and “saturated” I do think he was referring to AA’s business model, which relies on these connections, but UA appears to be going in a different direction.
Delta and American have 285 widebodies combined, United has 220. Where did you get your numbers from??
My source is planespotters.net
Once the new deliveries occur – sorry that was not clear.
This is why Alaska and Jet Blue exist
If premium market fares were in demand at any of these tiny towns, United would still be there or have returned already. But a livable wage for pilots does not support service to small towns without a big spender to pay for it (be that high-end tourists – EGE and JAC, or large corporate interests – XNA).
Should regional pilots become a cheap cost again, that would be a material market change.
Interesting perspective and I agree.
Delta and American are still in some of those airports though…
I have to fly to some of those small cities (and paying for F) so definitely flying more AA and DL. But I also have not been flying UA international as much because their Polaris on board soft product is poor, I don’t find much difference in hard product, and most importantly, it is often more expensive than the other carriers. After many years as a 1K, I’m really a free agent, find me self about to go AA executive plat.
Disappointing to hear. I am not familiar with the runway lengths of all the areas that have discontinued service, but I would hope that the ones that can handle mainline planes like the A320 or 738 will get some service, even at reduced frequencies. There is no doubt that UA is positioned far more strongly as a true ‘flag carrier’ for the US internationally, but having weak domestic feed, or relying very heavily on the metros in which their hubs are based (which, to be fair, are very large already) would be a mistake IMO.
Don’t worry American and Delta both still believe in the domestic market. American isn’t giving up on these smaller cities and neither is Delta. American will use RJ’s while Delta will use both RJ’s and their 717s which according to Delta will now stick around into the 2030s. Once Delta returns all 88 of their 717s to service they will be positioned along with American to take over the routes United believes are no longer important.
This just means they aren’t going to be returning to most of the small cities they excited. It doesn’t mean there won’t be future domestic growth, there absolutely will. Look at how many domestic narrowbodies UA has on order.
With regards to gates, while some hubs are maxed out like EWR, most will see growth. There are terminal redevelopment plans at IAD, ORD, and IAH that will all provide significant increases in mainline gates. DEN just added a ton of new gates. And if LAX T9 ever gets started that’ll eventually add either 12 WB gates or 18 NB gates. So there are new gates coming.
In short, while Andrew’s comment may make it seem like they won’t grow domestically, they will, just not in small towns.
Your last point is is quite correct. The growth will be more concentrated than in the 50-seat era.
In 10 years United will be chp 11 maybe 7,
Many of those cities they no longer serve are also within 100 miles of other cities with commercial air service. It’s the perfect opportunity to use rail for these short distances.
Hahaha haha
Oh, you weren’t joking about rail.
Ok then.
A caveat about leaning too hard on international. If in doubt, look at Pan Am in 1973 & 1980. International takes a big hit when the US economy sneezes. Flying half empty wide bodies is very expensive. At least the A321XLR could be reassigned to domestic & Caribbean duty to mitigate the loss.
As for smaller markets, I’ll use Steward Airport (SWF) as an example. In my 8 years living in the Hudson Valley, multiple airlines (regional service plus AirTran) came and went as the economy fluctuated. Currently, Allegiant Air is the only domestic carrier focused on the Florida market. As the pilot shortage eases, some of these smaller markets will pick up feeder service. You gotta keep these new pilots busy to pay off student loans.
You just cannot rely solely on metropolitan areas. Realize seven other airlines (DL, AA, AS, B6, WN, NK, & HA) are fighting over these same hubs in one form or another and several use feeder service (Horizon, Endeavor, Eagle) to keep these mainline routes full of PAX.
I had to chuckle at “devil’s chariot”. My mom once decided to fly out to Denver from Fargo, using my passes. She told me it was so nice to get first class. I told her the CRJ didn’t have first class. She informed me she was in row 1, there were leather seats, and only two seats on each side. I had to laugh. Who knew a CRJ was all first class!