Chicago says its $8.8 billion O’Hare bet is on track. The bill for who actually pays it is just arriving.
Chicago’s Aviation Chief Maintains Schedule
Chicago’s aviation commissioner used a public appearance this week to reassure the city that the $8.8 billion O’Hare expansion plan, including the airport’s first new concourse in more than 30 years, remains on track. New gates, a rebuilt Concourse D, and years of construction were sold to the public as the inevitable cost of keeping O’Hare competitive with Dallas-Fort Worth and other airports racing through their own multibillion dollar overhauls. Much of this feels a little late to the party as many airports have already completed their renovation projects from the bi-partisan COVID-era infrastructure bill.
But O’Hare’s expansion flies in the face of movements by federal regulators. The FAA spent this summer reducing not expanding capacity. Regulators capped O’Hare’s peak day operations at 2,708 flights between May 17 and October 24, a move Matthew covered when it happened as ending a pointless capacity war between United and American. Chicago is spending billions to build more gates at the same airport federal regulators instructed airlines to fly less.
The airport genuinely needs modern infrastructure. United and American genuinely packed too many flights into too few peak hour slots, which is exactly what Matthew described when United kept doubling down on Chicago even as the economics worsened. But a city cannot credibly sell an $8.8 billion “we need more room to grow” pitch in the same season the FAA rules there is not enough room in the sky above that growth.
Who Actually Writes The Check
Airport megaprojects nationwide, from DFW’s roughly $12 billion overhaul to JFK’s $19 billion rebuild, have a well documented habit of running years behind and billions over their original numbers. O’Hare’s own expansion has already grown from its original scope since it was first pitched. Nobody at this week’s press appearance offered a number for what happens if Concourse D, like most airport megaprojects before it, comes in over budget.
Airport expansions are financed overwhelmingly through bonds backed by landing fees, gate rents, and passenger facility charges, all of which airlines pass straight through to ticket prices. But this is different, the airlines are footing the bill, more specifically, American and United which both operate significant hubs at the airport. They are on the hook for $8.8bn today, but what could change is cost overruns. If the expansion price creeps and development slows, Chicago may look for other areas of funding beyond United and American and that traditionally would come from public sources. Infrastructure work is subject to delays and overruns and notorious for not hitting delivery or budget schedules, but in Chicago, this seems like a higher likelihood.
Conclusion
Chicago is not wrong to build. O’Hare needed a new concourse decades ago. And while the project may remain on track now, it is unlikely to stay that way. The budget that’s been showcased now has already grown, but both American and United have indicated there’s not more fruit to shake off the tree if cost overruns and delays occur. This is a case of a wink and a nod in which we all agree that this is the budget and the timeline and it totally won’t stray from those targets. The smart money (and there’s probably a Kalshi-type bet available) is that this ends up neither on time, nor on budget, and that Chicago tax payers end up footing the bill either directly (bonds) or indirectly (airport usage fees tacked on trips.)
What do you think?
Ohare has the most runways of any airport in the world, so what should they do? Not expand the concourses? Part of the reason the FAA has capped the flights is because the construction has made moving airplanes around the airport a mess. That is only temporary.
Will it be over budget? Probably… but increasing inflation and tariffs sure aren’t helping. And once they tear down terminal 2, United will have no choice but to see this through to completion
For comparison LGA’s renovation (2016-2024) cost $8B ($11B+ today), and ORD handles 2.5x the traffic to/from around the world. LGA’s perimeter rule restricts most nonstop flights to/from destinations within 1,500 miles. UA has nearly 50% ORD market share. DL has 41% LGA market share.
‘Hurr durr, Econ 101…’
For real, though, the new LGA is a palace. Worth every penny.
I agree. Just pointing out how obviously absurd this article and LTD’s rantings are.
Same here. Fun times.
I don’t trust it. How can you call it LaGuardia when there aren’t any tubes draining a roof into a tub? #notmylaguardia
The real economic issue is that AA and UA’s dual hubs at ORD result in way too much capacity for the local Chicago market so fares are low; add in high costs which are only getting higher and ORD hubs are an economic disaster.
and it spills over onto WN’s MDW hub so it all means that Chicago air service is subsidized by profits from other regions of the country.
in contrast, DL’s DTW and MSP hubs combined are larger than AA or UA’s Chicago operations ever can be – even if AA eventually walks away – and DL gets far better revenue per seat from its DTW and MSP hubs at lower airport hubs.
As much as UA fans esp. love to talk about the great metros that host UA hubs, Chicago is a perfect example of just one of the reasons why UA’s profitability trails DL’s even with UA’s labor cost advantage.
Is this a blog for travelers or investors? WGAF that DTW and MSP get more revenue per passenger? Chicago is hands down a better place to be an O&D passenger than either of those 3rd tier cities.
Not only that, your statement is completely false that DLs hubs in those two airports combined is larger than either UA or AA could ever achieve at ORD (which is ridiculous already comparing two combined hubs to one). UA was going to fly 750 flights/day at ORD this year until the party of small government administration stepped in and capped them, which just about matches or exceeds DL flight count at those two.
in case you haven’t figured it out, ALL US airlines are for-profit companies.
There is no such thing as something that an airline can do that either has to make money or the company has to be able to subsidize it one way or another.
ORD is a financial black hole for AA and UA. Any rational person can see it.
UA cl0wns love to talk about how DL monopolizes its hub – but what they don’t tell you is how poorly UA has been able to win in major competitive markets.
UA’s attempt to force AA out of ORD was an abyssmal strategic failure – and the cost of that failure will carry on for years and years – at the cost of less service.
DL’s ability to win the Midwest via its dual DTW and MSP strategies is precisely why DL offers far more international capacity from its Midwest hubs than AA or UA could ever hope to offer from ORD.
The financial success or not of hubs DOES matter to customers.
Absurdist statements bereft of evidence. ORD makes money for UA and AA. It is far more pleasant to travel to, from, and through ORD than either JFK or DFW. MSP is a tiny operation compared to O’Hare.
Im sure when a detroit resident wants to fly to New York and has to pay $546, while a chicago resident is paying $320 for the same flight times, they are thankful that delta is slightly more profitable than united.
Gimme a break
If ORD is a ‘financial black hole’ what is LGA for Delta Air Lines? LGA’s renovation (2016-2024) cost $8B ($11B+ today), and ORD handles 2.5x the traffic to/from around the world. LGA’s perimeter rule restricts most nonstop flights to/from destinations within 1,500 miles. UA has nearly 50% ORD market share. DL has 41% LGA market share. Yikes!
Nothing but nonsensical LTD wishful lack of thinking.
LGA is a predominantly local market airport which means local passengers pay for the cost of the renovations.
DL as well as other airlines connect very few passengers over LGA.
ORD exists as a connecting airport and already has costs per passenger higher than any other major connecting airport.
and, as much as you or others want to pretend otherwise, it is precisely DL’s ability to dominate its hub markets including DTW and MSP that allow it to operate far more profitability than AA or UA which continue to knock each other silly at ORD, an airport with high costs and lower revenues than other airports wiht large hubs.
whether you want to talk about them or not, there are a number of reasons why AA and UA make far less than DL does and ORD is one of them.
Delta paid $4b+ in today’s dollars for LGA’s reno. Yikes!
Yikes! is that you are incapable of realizing that the LGA rebuild was expensive FOR EVERYONE. DL just happens to have almost half of the entire number of flights at LGA – the largest among all airlines – so pays a larger share.
Feel free to show us how much every carrier pays per passenger at LGA? Don’t try. DL self-managed its LGA construction just as it did at LAX specifically so it could save money – and much of its costs at LGA have been pre-paid, locking in costs for years in advance. No other airline has that advantage.
stop arguing about stuff that you know nothing about.
LTD says, “DL just happens to have almost half of the entire number of flights at LGA ”
UA has 3x the passengers at ORD as DL has at LGA who are flying around the world vs <1,500 nm. Yikes is right.
Ah no. UA says they make a bundle at ORD. $500mills out of $4.71 bills in 2025. So more than 1/10 their total profit.
The great Windy City and its great ORD always deserve better… More power, resources and best of good luck to the bold O’Hare 21 modernization program!
As is well known, neither AA nor UA can do without ORD, and neither can ORD do without them.
Frankly, it is genuinely comforting that proponents emphasize that the massive ORD modernization project relies entirely on airport revenues, landing fees, and airline agreements rather than local taxpayer funding.
As someone with six decades of experience as a Chicagoan, when ORD21 was announced, I expected it to be overbudget and late. I’m firmly convinced that I will not live to see it finished. And as for you, Kyle, a modicum of research will tell you that O’Hare has no Concourse D, so it’s not being “rebuilt”. And you wonder why people don’t take you seriously.
Yes, major airlines and independent analyses consider the O’Hare 21 program “too expensive” in its current state. However, to understand if this is “too expensive,” it helps to think of this ambitious project like a major home renovation. If you need to stay competitive with modern neighbors (e.g., DFW), you must update your house.
A few things to point out. Companies are fleeing Illinois, so there may be fewer business travel demands, but as a dual hub with a Midwest location, it will continue to grow like DFW.
ORD and Midway draw from the region: Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, and downstate Illinois, so that will keep O&D traffic up to some degree.
This project is in Illinois and in the Chicago area on top of that. A state and metro area famous for slow-walking projects with massive cost overruns. A few years ago, after about 3 years of construction, I asked an IDOT rep about why it was taking them so long to expand a few miles of I-57 from 4 to 6 lanes, and he didn’t have an answer. I pointed out that the English Channel Tunnel was completed in 6 years, but IDOT couldn’t get their highly paid, prevailing wage union contractor to add a couple of lanes in less than 3 years.
Businesses are not “fleeing Illinois”.
“March 2, 2026
Chicagoland Named #1 U.S. Metro for Corporate Relocation and Site Selection”
https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/depts/mayor/press_room/press_releases/2026/march/relocation-site-selection.html
“ Yes, Chicago is experiencing a noticeable decline in its business population, with the number of active licensed businesses falling by nearly 19% since 2015. High-profile corporate headquarters like Boeing, Caterpillar, Citadel, TTX, and Tyson Foods have relocated. Additionally, the Magnificent Mile has seen storefronts drop by over 40%.”
Sounds like Illinois Policy institute garbage.
Tyson only had a HQ in chicago because they acquired Hillshire brands. This was just a consolidation back to their original HQ.
Boeing moved to be near the lobbyists and politicians.
Citadel moved because the owner had a hissy fit about not being successful in buying the governor election, so he took his ball and went home.
Caterpillar is a tough one, but funny, no mention of Moen or Kellanova moving TO Chicago by you
Mag mile is seeing a bit of a resurgence lately after losing dinosaurs like Saks and macys. Lots of new investment.
Chicago isn’t going anywhere
Always love to read expert takes about Chicago on the internet from people who don’t live in Chicago. From what I’ve been reading the past 20 years you would think I would walk through my neighborhood and I’d see tumbleweeds, vacant storefronts and armed vigilantes. Thanks Fox News for creating CDS, Chicago Derangement Syndrome.
Billy Bob bringing the truth, keep up the good work!
Clearly this author did not bother to read the actual order from the FAA citing exactly why the caps are in place.
A journalist that would’ve bothered to locate and read the actual FAA order would have realized the FAA flight caps are in place precisely because of the construction that is happening at O’Hare. itself capping the flight operations at 2,708 per day is BECAUSE of the very construction you cite in your article.
Here’s the order itself: https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/ORD-Operating-Limitations-Order-Extension-W2627-and-S27.pdf
Directly from the FAA’s summary:
“The construction projects and adjustments on the airfield necessitating the Order are expected to continue through Summer 2027, which will continue to limit airport capacity and impact airport operations. FAA finds that
significant delay and operational disruption would occur at ORD if the ORD Order were to expire as originally scheduled.”
Furthermore… the 2,708 flights per day is a cap and if ORD averaged 2,708 flights per day for 365 days a year, that would be 988,420 flights in a single year. ORD’s only had that many flight operations ONCE in its 70 year history, back in 2004.
All of that took me 5 minutes of research. You’re welcome. ORD is a beast and an engine for Chicagoland.
Let’s be clear. The capping of flights at O’Hare and other Blue city and States airports is completely political, under the guise of safety concerns. Just do the math. O’Hare as more runways and gates then any airport in the world. With roughly 85M passengers in 2025. The idea that other airports around the country and world are flying millions more passengers a year with fewer runways and gates exposes the ly and political motivation. Just like Trump and his administration tried to pull the plug on the CTA Red line extension money and the courts stopped them. Once this vindictive President and his administration is out of office. O’Hare airport and the other airports who’ve been subjected to his arbitrary vindictive ways, will be able to get back to expansion plans unimpeded my a President actively working against his own States and Cities. All because they won’t cooperate with me on immigration.