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Home  >  Travel  >  Nowhere To Hide: High Costs Leave Travelers Few Options
Travel

Nowhere To Hide: High Costs Leave Travelers Few Options

Kyle Stewart Posted onOctober 24, 2021 14 Comments
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Escalating travel prices and gas costs leave travelers with nowhere to run, and nowhere they can afford to hide this travel season. 


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Holiday Travel Season

The busy holiday travel season is upon us again, but this year will be different than most (for the second year in a row.) Last year, due to COVID-19, travel was down considerably during the holidays. Many chose to spend the holidays where they were rather than traveling. As early as four weeks ago, bookings began to pick up ahead of Thanksgiving and Christmas. While not yet returning to pre-pandemic levels, they were substantially elevated over last year.

“We’re already seeing significant momentum around international and domestic flight searches when compared to 2020, up 155 percent and 212 percent, respectively,” says Matt Clarke, the VP of marketing at online travel agency, Kayak. “When compared to 2019, however, both international and domestic flight searches are down, 52 percent and 43 percent, respectively.” – Travel and Leisure

A number of factors, like reduced crew availability and fuel costs, threaten the travel season this year. United CEO, Scott Kirby has already indicated that costs will be higher due to the price of oil.

“Higher jet fuel prices lead to higher ticket prices,” Kirby told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “Ultimately, we’ll pass that through.” – CNBC

He’s not alone, Delta has warned the same. Expensive flights and hotels aren’t the only issues facing travelers this holiday season. Escalating fuel prices, worker shortages, and inflation make this travel season even harder.

The West Texas Industrial and Brent Crude prices have hovered around $80/bbl for the last few weeks. In 2014, coming off some all-time high fuel prices, the price was around $90/bbl before dropping for the last six years to as low as $20/bbl. Throughout the last two years, it has waxed and waned ranging between $40-60/bbl most of the time. Coupled with more travelers than last year, rates will be higher.

Higher prices along with transportation infrastructure struggles at ports, some 80,000 needed truck drivers, and a global economy recovering from factory shutdowns over the last two years have made goods more expensive and harder to get.

“The annual increase in the consumer price index matched readings in June and July as the highest in 13 years, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core inflation rose 0.2% in September and 4% compared with a year ago. Core prices hit a three-decade high of 4.5% in June.” – Associated Press

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported fewer new jobs this week than expected; the United States currently has more open positions than ever before. Those labor shortages are driving the annual inflation and Consumer Price Index (CPI) as outlined above. It’s also worth noting that for the period of time used in the Labor Department’s figures, gas prices and food costs are excluded. As a measure of inflation, it’s not telling the whole picture when we exclude those major cost centers from the basket of goods that creates our inflation calculator.  As these prices rise, economic activity will likely decrease, especially in discretionary goods or services – travel falls squarely in that category for most consumers.

Computer chip shortages have also affected the auto market, shutting down factories for the major auto manufacturers and pinching the market further for new cars, and elevating the used car market by as much as 24%.

gas prices

Alternatives

In the past, family members that might have flown to relatives for the holidays won’t be able to substitute high airfare for cheaper fuel costs by driving themselves.

“The demand for car rentals in the U.S. this holiday season is already up 229 percent compared to 2019 and up 244 percent compared to 2020, an indicator that we could experience another car rental shortage this holiday season as we’re seeing an increase in those searching further in advance for car rentals than years prior,” says Clarke.” – T&L

Amtrak and bus lines are feeling the pinch too with worker shortages, and higher transportation costs.

Jack Dorsey, founder of Twitter but also of financial business, Square, and its Cash App added this with regard to the rates of inflation,

“Hyperinflation is going to change everything,” and In response to a user comment, Dorsey added that he sees inflation escalating around the world, too. “It will happen in the US soon, and so the world,” – Business Insider

So where do travelers go from here? They can’t drive themselves as fuel prices are already severely elevated and rising. Airfare is rising and with the rest of the inflation issues, there’s no budget to squeeze it from elsewhere. Consumers can’t rent cars due to both cost and availability (for those who do not own a car). Travelers may be stuck for the holidays whether they like it or not.

The Manchester Christmas Markets.
The Manchester Christmas Markets.

Fewer To Travel?

Will all of these cost and convenience challenges lead to fewer travelers this season? The data said “no” earlier this season but fuel has risen since that point as well. While vaccines and declining confirmed COVID cases in the US have pushed the figure higher than it was in 2020, those projections might be revised lower.

Southwest Airlines, the nation’s largest domestic carrier, has announced it will trim its schedules to account for a reduction in crew availability.

Something has to give. Slumping job numbers (see the prior link to inflation data from the Associated Press) with higher costs and less availability for flights and rental cars may force some to have another Zoom Thanksgiving.

Conclusion

Higher fuel costs, inflation of all prices, reduced workers, and more travelers than last year creates a terrible collision course this holiday season. There’s nowhere to run and nowhere to hide creating more discontent after our year(s) of discontent.

What do you think? Will the transportation challenges facing the country drastically alter the country’s holiday plans? 

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About Author

Kyle Stewart

Kyle is a freelance travel writer with contributions to Time, the Washington Post, MSNBC, Yahoo!, Reuters, Huffington Post, MapHappy, Live And Lets Fly and many other media outlets. He is also co-founder of Scottandthomas.com, a travel agency that delivers "Travel Personalized." He focuses on using miles and points to provide a premium experience for his wife and daughter. Email: sherpa@thetripsherpa.com

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14 Comments

  1. Jason Reply
    October 24, 2021 at 4:13 pm

    I’ve booked all my plane tickets, rented my cars for the end of the year (thanksgiving and Christmas) and have several trips booked through next year. This whole thing is a bit alarmist

  2. Sexy_kitten7 Reply
    October 24, 2021 at 4:49 pm

    Good for goosegander! I’m doing Nyc, San, Ogg, Sjd, and maybe Srq. But not touching xmas with a 10 ft pole!

  3. Joe Biden Reply
    October 24, 2021 at 5:29 pm

    Kyle, take this post down immediately. This is all Republican lies and misinformation. Kam and I have everything here under control.

    And by the way, the bit about rising crude prices is especially insulting. Didn’t you know that my son is an oil and gas expert?

    • Airfarer Reply
      October 25, 2021 at 9:13 am

      Thanks for taking the time to write, Joe You seem a little distracted lately so it’s good to know you have everything under control.

  4. david Reply
    October 24, 2021 at 7:07 pm

    Welcome to the United States of Venezuela. Lets Go Brandon.

  5. Dave Edwards Reply
    October 24, 2021 at 7:30 pm

    Still plenty of cheap flights out there if you are flexible. RT $120 TPA to PHL on AA Christmas week.

    But I’ll still say Let’s Go Brandon while laughing at liberals with a kid named Brandon. They can’t cheer for the poor kid at his participation trophy events.

  6. Debit Reply
    October 24, 2021 at 8:18 pm

    So much whining.

    I guess some people just can’t pull themselves up as well by their bootstraps as they lecture others to do so.

    • Aaron Reply
      October 25, 2021 at 1:09 am

      But they do have time to post on here under 3 or 4 different names…lol

  7. AlohaDaveKennedy Reply
    October 24, 2021 at 9:47 pm

    Jack Dorsey fails to note that it is inflationary expectations that provide the momentum which propels hyperinflation. Since the Party of the Jackass took power they have done nothing but talk of spending money for “Infrastructure,” like a park for Pelosi in San Francisco, or free this or free that. They have created inflationary expectations in their effort to pay for votes and allowed quite expensive massive illegal immigration in their effort to rustle up new voters. Pin the tail on the donkey – Let’s Go Democrats!

  8. Robby Marks Reply
    October 25, 2021 at 1:00 am

    Kyle – you need to get a tesla, who uses gas anymore?? LOL

    • Kyle Stewart Reply
      October 25, 2021 at 2:25 am

      @Robby Marks – American/Southwest/United/Delta use quite a bit, but I was shocked that the US still uses 20MM bbl/day.

  9. Frank Reply
    October 25, 2021 at 2:17 pm

    You know how I know you have no idea what you are talking about? There is no West Texas Industrial crude. The US benchmark is West Texas Intermediate. Oil is sold by volume and density. WTI is the intermediate density benchmark, Arabian Light is the light density benchmark and Brent is the high density benchmark.

  10. Crude Man from Industrial West Texas Reply
    October 25, 2021 at 2:26 pm

    Speak for yourself

  11. Jerry Reply
    October 25, 2021 at 2:56 pm

    Here are some flights I have or have taken between now and the end of the year

    MCO-YYZ-MCO: $341
    IAH-DUB, ZRH-IAH : $1,431 (in J)
    AUS-PUJ: $199
    MIA-MEX: $349 (in J)
    SJO-AUS: $206

    None of that sounds expensive to me, and at $2.79/Gal (here in TX), I don’t think anyone is going to be staying home. Even at $4/Gal a 600 mile trip in a car that gets 20 MPG would only cost $120. Is anybody really staying home over that?

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