United Airlines did not grow as originally hoped for in 2022. Growth in 2023 will also be more modest than originally forecast. United CEO Scott Kirby explained to investors yesterday that industry-wide capacity constraints will impact all airlines and that many of his competitors are in “denial” concerning realistic growth in the current environment.
United Airlines CEO Says Competitors Are In Denial Concerning Growth Targets
Speaking yesterday via webcast, Kirby first pointed out three problems facing all airlines that will hinder growth in 2023.
First, the pilot shortage continues to represent an industry-wide capacity constraint:
For a host of reasons, we believe the industry capacity aspirations for 2023 and beyond are simply unachievable. But, just like 2022, when the industry capacity was 7 points lower than initial guidance, and we believe that same thing will happen this year for the same reasons. We’ve talked a lot about the pilot shortage, which is just one of multiple constraints. We, along with Delta, American and Southwest alone are planning to hire about 8,000 pilots this year, compared to historical supply in the 6,000 to 7,000 range. Pilots are and will remain a significant constraint on capacity.
United hopes to pick off pilots from non-affiliated regional carriers and low-cost carriers through its Aviate training program and other recruitment efforts.
Second, more employees are calling in sick and are protected by law when doing so. This means more workers are needed to do the same thing:
Post COVID, all companies including airlines and the FAA need to staff at higher levels, lower experience levels combined with sick rates that are elevated because of COVID, and new state legislation that makes it a lot easier to call in sick. We believe any airline that tries to run at the same stepping levels that it had pre-pandemic is bound to fail and likely to tip over to meltdown anytime there are weather or air traffic control stress in the system. OEMs are behind on aircraft, on engines, on parts. Across the board, there are supply chain constraints that limit the ability of airlines to grow.
Kirby attributes a meltdown in part due to a mentality that believes that the same work can be done with the same number of employees as was done prior to the pandemic.
Third, outdated technology infrastructure on both a government level and airline level make smooth operations inherently more difficult.
The FAA and most airlines with the exception of the network carriers have outgrown their technology infrastructure and simply cannot operate reliably in this more challenging environment.
A perfect example is the Southwest Airlines crew scheduling system which was unable to handle the string of flight cancellations during poor winter last month.
More Pilots Necessary Simply To Keep Up With Existing Schedules
That’s why United sees the need for more pilots simply to keep up, not even necessarily to grow:
“Taking all of the above into the consideration, we think at United, we need to carry at least 5% more pilots per block hour than pre-pandemic. In addition to that, air traffic control challenges mean our taxi and in-route flight times are elevated and growing. So, the same number of block hours probably produces 4% to 5% fewer ASMs. Put it together, we need 10% more pilots and 5% more aircraft to produce the same number of pre-pandemic ASMs. Like it or not, that’s just the new reality and the new math for all airlines.”
Kirby implies that this problem is hardly unique to United and that other airlines that downplay this structural change and continue to insist that growth is possible under pre-pandemic parameters are simply in denial.
It’s intellectually hard and takes time to get through the denial phase. What happened over the holidays wasn’t a one-time event caused by the weather and it wasn’t just at one airline. One airline got the bulk of the media coverage, but the weather was the straw that broke the camel’s back for several. This keeps happening, over and over again. And you can see that despite good weather, ULCC still hadn’t recovered even as we entered the New Year.
Kirby believes that these structural changes favor United because United saw these headwinds coming earlier than its peers and has prepared accordingly.
CONCLUSION
Kirby said, “We flew a lot less last year than we’d have liked to fly, but we did it intentionally, because it gave us the breathing room to make even further investments in our technology and infrastructure, and increase our staffing levels.” Confident that it is now in a position to grow, albeit more modestly than originally hoped for, United believes that other carriers are deluding themselves in thinking that growth is possible in the current environment of the airline industry.
image: @scottkirby / Instagram
Matthew. Again, with all due respect, what’s with the bias for United and Kirby. Did you not feel it was newsworthy to report Delta’s $1.3 billion profit for 2022 – of which $500 million in profit sharing will be passed along to employees on Valentines Day? In an industry that had been decimated, is that not ‘good news’ to report for a change? Compare both stats at YCHARTS.com
I write about United because I am most comfortable writing about United, the airline I fly the most and have been doing for nearly two decades. It’s not that I dislike Delta or do not find the news you mention newsworthy. Rather, it is that I do not have time to cover everything I would like to cover and choose to focus on United and leave Delta (and American) to others.
I, for one, appreciate this approach and as United is also my primary airline and the one I have flown for 25+ years, L&LF is my first blog stop. If I want in-depth AA or DL reporting, I know which blogs to hit next.
Now if Kirby just wouldn’t be in denial of United’s slop of catering, we’d all be better off!
Fair enough. As a content strategist and generator, myself, I aways try to not to give the impression of bias – one way or another – but we all have our game plan and leave it to our readers to view our content and make their own assumptions. I for one will continue to read your blog because – in general – feel you provide a lot of good content and not a lot of click bait like some of your fellow ‘influencers.’
I agree with others…..I fly United, and like to read your blog because of it’s focus on United.
Why don’t you just go to a different blog Joel? Delta is the most overrated airline of all time. Everyone thinks they’re cool cause all their narrowbody planes have screens, well guess what, in a few years United will too, and United actually has a good network with good hubs, not in cities like Seattle, Salt Lake, Minneapolis, or Detroit, all horrible cities!
United will CRUSH Delta over the next decade.
Hear, Hear!!!
Agree!!
Maybe Kirby should worry about his own stock and company and let other companies worry about their own results.
Or is there something else going on where he is trying to say something about future stock results? AA, Delta and United are all up similar amount 5-6% in the past 6 months so why bring this up? Does he expect to underperform them moving forward and is trying to make excuses already?
Just seems strange to worry about what your competitors are saying.
UA started worrying about what rivals said because Delta tried to restrict the number of South African slots that UA can get
Careful, Dave E. is a hater of all things LGBTQ, and may take your “South Africa slots UA can get” phrase the wrong way and freak the F out
He must be rational then.
I think what he is saying is that other airlines are promising pie in the sky results for 2023 and his shareholders might ask why he isn’t making the same promises. So he is saying they are wrong and United shouldn’t be judged by their statements.
I think Kirby’s statement is completely fair (and actually ties well to every prediction he has made in earnings calls since 2020). Boeing and Airbus are big players in United’s growth strategy. He also has a pilot strike to deal with (once they get a new union head). Delta operates their fleet differently, but ultimately, it is going to be a duopoly for the next year or so with United the better performing growth metrics and Delta retiring credit and passing Southwest. Not investing advice in any way, just what I see happening.
Now if he could just stop those pesky heart strokes and heart issues that he forced on many. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said on Friday that a CDC vaccine database had uncovered a possible safety issue in which people 65 and older were more likely to have an ischemic stroke 21 days after receiving the Pfizer/BioNTech bivalent shot: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-says-pfizers-bivalent-covid-shot-may-be-linked-stroke-older-adults-2023-01-13/
Care to do a story on this one Matthew? Or nah. Just kidding, already know you won’t.
The FAA has very quietly tacitly admitted that the EKGs of pilots are no longer normal. https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/the-faa-has-very-quietly-tacitly
Are you still fighting this battle? Get over it.
And if you’re going to cite something, try actually citing data and actual medical sources rather than opinion pieces.
Got anything that actually statistically shows any true adverse hard health outcomes worse in vaccinated vs unvaccinated? Nope.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7043e2.htm
IDGAF. Reuters is opinion now? FAA changing parameters for pilot physicals is opinion now? GTFOH. There are TRUE AND VALID concerns about the fact that we have fully vaccinated and now unhealthy people both driving and piloting planes.
Again, please feel free to review/ state where the actual data I cited is incorrect. Go ahead and show the published hard data that demonstrates actual harm, beyond being unvaccinated and getting “natural” COVID (you do have to compare the risks of vaccination vs risks of COVID without vaccination, can’t cherry pick your comparator group here).
Sounds like you need to wake up, or show up with actual hard data. Or better yet, shut up until you know what you’re talking about.
ok, Israel, who was planning to require eight boosters.. FOH
Watch the language. Please don’t make me ban you – I don’t want to do that.
just ban me, who the f cares dude! not like you’re reporting anything in aviation that actually matters you know like HEALTH AND SAFETY. keep living in your rich delusional paradise. Deuces bruh
I would advise you to get out of the Tucker Carlson bubble. That guy is a dangerous menace of disinformation. I don’t believe in vaccine mandates, but I’m sick of the conspiracy theories peddled by spurious snake oil salesmen like him that play on emotions and stats that lack proper context or nuance. You know what said it all? Tucker ran commercial-free during the January 6th Comm hearings because there was so much fear that people would actually turn the channel and tune into that. Pathetic. And if you are that same poster that I banned a year ago, congrats on lasting for so long.
dude i listen to Tucker like 2 times a year, IF THAT. not a fan of him or anyone at FOX. The fact of the matter is that yall have egg on your face for supporting these vaccines and the truth is coming out and cannot be stopped.. ignorance really must be bliss for the rich. Hope you got saline.
Dude, you must not have paid close attention here.
https://liveandletsfly.com/united-airlines-vaccine-lawsuit/#My_Thoughts_On_The_United_Airlines_Vaccine_Lawsuit
The world isn’t black and white.
September? We’re in January and a new year.
The FAA has very quietly tacitly admitted that the EKGs of pilots are no longer normal. https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/the-faa-has-very-quietly-tacitly
Report about things that matter. Then you can report about the rubber duckies and lounges and food.
January 2023 > September 2021
Until you wait the f up, you’re in DENIAL
Wake*
Oh, and I notice you’re all about Reuters but seem to ignore this release from them:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/israel-says-has-not-found-link-between-pfizer-covid-shot-stroke-2023-01-19/
ok, Israel, who was planning to require eight boosters.. FOH
“ok, Israel, who was planning to require eight boosters”
— so what part of the data is flawed or incorrectly analyzed in this study? Want to pick it apart for us, or just dismiss it because… you don’t like the answer? You don’t like Israelis?
“I am not your f***ng librarian dude. the info exists. I’ve posted it countless times. go f*** yourself.”
Charming. Swearing and ad hominem attacks. Last resort of the ignorant and clueless. YES you have to be the librarian, because you’re making the misleading and false assertions. I am actually citing where you are wrong. You are seemingly ignoring anything that contradicts the answer that you desperately wish was true.
You’ve posted countless times and been wrong countless times. Try an actual article describing the multiple ways they look at safety signals and how they determine true risk, including the statistical methods.
https://www.idse.net/Covid-19/Article/12-22/CDC-FDA-COVID-COVID-19-Pandemic-Vaccine-COVID-Vaccine-Pfizer-Moderna-Bivalent-Booster-Stroke-Risk/69219
Sorry about that bro, you’re just not worth my time — delusional loser who will never consider another perspective. Sorry that “the science” has not caught up yet but it’s well on it’s way.. there’s plenty of info and plenty of doctors and nations who agree with me. Enjoy that heart attack. When you’re ready to discuss this: https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/the-faa-has-very-quietly-tacitly, let me know.
OK, fine- I’m not worth you’re time. But you keep replying? I don’t understand.
Probably I’m not worth your time to actually prove anything and rebut ACTUAL data. Although you have cited a blog. How nice.
So, do you have an explanation of what EKG criteria has changed? A database of EKG changes in vaccinated vs unvaccinated? Any link to a greater long term risk of any heart outcomes as opposed to unvaccinated people?
You do know that “natural” Covid carries cardiac risk- and at higher rates than vaccines do, and also vaccinated people have a lower covid cardiac risk, right? The issue is whether the vaccine risks are greater than the non- vaccine risks seeing as how everyone is going to have ongoing covid exposures. You know this, right?
To paraphrase Mark Wahlberg: “I’m the guy who knows what he’s talking about; you must be the other guy”
Besides, it’s over. Get over it. Nobody’s making anyone get a vaccine at this point and nobody is mandating any further ones. Covid’s pretty much at its end stage “true” endemic phase now. Move on.
Anyway, I hope anyone else looking at this is entertained. Signing off for the night- but I’m sure you’ll make sure to get the “last word” in
You can have the last word and apologies for the personal attacks. But no, this not over. It’s only just begun. We’re not moving on. There are many of us who have vaccine injuries in their own circles and have had serious health events or problems since being vaccinated.
We don’t live in the Stone Age. We live in information age. You demand studies of this and that, but your science is bought and paid for, and when we show you our studies it’s not good enough. And your numbers are all f’ed up. Doctor Leana Wen on CNN this week:
https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1615347156415811589
CNN’s @DrLeanaWen admits the U.S. has been dramatically overcounting Covid deaths, says we need to start separating actual Covid deaths from deaths with Covid
Mind you this is her saying this now when she was a huge proponent of strict lockdowns previously. Experts are changing their tune on this insane house of cards.
It’s about time that you and Matthew and a few others read the room on this topic. I am correct on this. It’s not about ego or me needing to be right. I’ve followed this topic like a hawk for years now. From all sources. All evidence points to massive issues with many of the vaccines nationwide. It’s time people accept this fact. Get to a detox specialist asap. I may sound uncaring and like I’m an awful person in other comments when I am triggered but actually I just care too much. I know a few United employees who of course listened to the vax Koolaid but I’m sure who now know it was a huge mistake. That is painful to me as someone who cares about them. Aside from the mandate, I like what United is doing overall. I just wish they would own up to the vaccine issue. There is a comment someone else made in the article linked from 2021 that explains why the vaccine should not have been mandated. I’ll post it and we will see if Matthew approves it. When I make mistakes in life, I try to do my best to fix things, to make things right, to apologize, to atone, and so on — with varying success. But I try. I’d like to see United try to make this situation right. It’s just wrong what they did to their workforce. I’m sorry — but that is just the God’s honest truth, like it or not. Farewell.
There is absolutely no reason for ANY employer to mandate these vaccines for the following reasons:
1. The vaccine does not prevent you from getting sick with Covid.
2, The vaccine does not prevent you from spreading Covid to others.
3. The vaccine does not prevent you from being hospitalized due to Covid.
4. The vaccine does not prevent you from dying or having complications.
In fact, I’d argue it makes it way more probable. There have over 700,000 injuries/deaths already from these jabs. And this very likely only represents 1% of those reported. <- This claim has been made by several medical professionals, but the MSM won't tell you this.
https://openvaers.com/covid-data/covid-reports?start=24
5. There are other treatable medications that work MUCH better than these vaccines – Ivermectin, Hydroxycloriquine, and many others. These ARE proven to work. The CDC is blocking it because they are cheap and affordable.
6. The vaccines are EXPERIMENTAL. Regardless of approved or not, all of these vaccines are in Stage 3 of their clinical studies, and there are no long term studies done.
7. The makers of these vaccines cannot be held accountable if something happens to you if you take this. They are immune from responsibility.
8. Covid has a 99.5% recovery rate or greater for people under 69.
Before anyone argues with me about these facts, I ask you to please look at alternative sources of news regarding these vaccines, plus the protocols hospitals are using to treat Covid patients. Almost every hospital uses Remdesivir which is killing way more patients than it helps. The MSM, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube are all blocking VERY important information from world renowned immunologists, virologists, hundreds of doctors and nurses, and ANYONE who questions the efficacy of these vaccines and these protocols. If this doesn't raise a red flag for you, I'm not sure what will.
Lastly, if you want to ignore all of the REAL evidence showing these vaccines do not work, and are not safe, then by all means you do what you want. But don't tell me I need to take it!
Oh great, looks like LALF has been re-taken by the anti-vaxxing conspiracy crowd…high correlation w/never having a passport and living in their parents’ basements well into their 30s.
It’s interesting that he is referring to a national market as ‘the industry’ while speaking as the CEO a company whose declared ambition is to be the best in the world.
A little unnecessary dig at legislation regarding sick days. Even if the states didn’t make it easier to take sick days, easier access and management support for taking a sick day when you’re unwell (whether its a result of infection or simple mental and physical exhaustion) would translate to better outcomes for the company and the customers.
I can understand a responsibility to shareholders to justify the increased costs, but you don’t need to try to shift the right thing for a leader to do would be to own the commitment to the health and well being of your employees and passengers.
The A/L industry is notoriously unpredictable.
All it takes is a another SW type meltdown; adverse weather at two or more hubs from the same storm; or equipment encumbrance (ie: MAX issues) to blow any predictions out of the water.
Time will tell.
Matt, I enjoyed that. Thanks. Indeed, many industries in the states did “cuts to the bone” for efficiency but “fat” has a purpose as well otherwise why would our bodies have it? Extra capacity is useful for situations such as COVID but also, (not that many care) employee health and retention. Back when dinosaurs roamed the Earth, it was normal for someone to be at the same firm for 2 decades or more and “jumpers” were frowned upon. I did this early in my career and was regarded with suspicion for years afterwards until… rolling layoffs and hiring/layoff binges were so normal that few resumes had more than 5 years experience on them.
I’m amazed that these firms survive that well but “too big to fail” kicks in and people got accustomed to poor service and reliability from companies, “vaporware” and such. A friend of mine remarked that stuff was “made better” just 2 decades ago. His USSR made Microwave oven is still in use while one he bought a mere 4 years ago broke right after the warranty expired.
What “post pandemic” reality looks like is basically how the world was before all these cuts. It would be great if those in power could learn the (correct) lessons from history…