• Home
  • Reviews
    • Flight Reviews
    • Hotel Reviews
    • Lounge Reviews
    • Trip Reports
  • About
    • Press
  • Contact
  • Privacy
  • Award Expert
  • Advertising Disclosure
Live and Let's Fly
  • Home
  • Reviews
    • Flight Reviews
    • Hotel Reviews
    • Lounge Reviews
    • Trip Reports
  • About
    • Press
  • Contact
  • Privacy
  • Award Expert
  • Advertising Disclosure
Home  >  Coronavirus • Travel  >  2019 Was Peak Travel, When Will it Return?
CoronavirusTravel

2019 Was Peak Travel, When Will it Return?

Kyle Stewart Posted onJune 14, 2020September 13, 2021 4 Comments
My dear readers, some links on this site pay us referral fees for sending business and sales. We value your time and money and will not waste it. For our complete advertising policy, click here. The content on this page is not provided by any companies mentioned, and has not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by these entities. Opinions expressed here are the author's alone.

In 2019, many metrics suggest the world saw peak travel. Due to the Coronavirus crisis and countries shutting their borders, the question of whether Peak Travel will ever return and if so, when, remains unanswered.


If you are considering booking travel or signing up for a new credit card please click here. Both support LiveAndLetsFly.com.


If you haven’t followed us on Facebook or Instagram, add us today.

Peak Travel

Last year was arguably the best ever for travel. Airlines boarded more than 4.7 billion passengers. Inflation-adjusted airfare numbers for domestic US flights (including total cost of a trip) were the cheapest in at least the last 27 years (the furthest back BTS data shows.) Capacity increases outpaced GDP and put more seats on the market than ever before.

More passengers flew, airlines had more seats to sell and airfare was the cheapest it had ever been in 2019.

What Some Are Forecasting

Airline executives have weighed in with their thoughts on when travel will return to 2019 levels. Some have not been shy about their bleak outlooks. Specifically, as of May 11th, the ever-verbose Qatar Airways CEO, Akbar Al-Baker thinks recovery is a long way off:

“… the CEO, who heads one of the Middle East’s largest carriers, added he would be “very surprised” if travel demand recovered before 2023/2024.”

Qatar Airways Boeing Airbus

Likewise, on May 6th Emirates projected a long-term recovery period though not nearly as dire as Al-Baker’s assessment:

“We expect it will take 18 months at least, before travel demand returns to a semblance of normality,” Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed al-Maktoum, chairman of Emirates, said in a statement.”

Emirates A380 Crash

But those statements were made a month ago and neither has revised their estimates as of yet. US Carriers have been all over the place, at least two now predict it will see traffic levels at or exceeding 2019 levels before the end of the year.

Even as cities were closing, Marriott was re-opening hotels in China as early as February, so some are more upbeat than others.

What Do I Think?

Returning to normal operations in which active runways are no longer being used for aircraft storage is different than returning to its 2019 peak. As I mentioned last week, some airlines have expedited retirement plans for older equipment. But some went beyond that, as Delta did, replacing equipment recently renovated and not scheduled for near-term retirement. Some airlines have also reduced or eliminated very large aircraft like the A380.

Airlines also lost ground on trans-Atlantic rates. Coach flights from the US west coast to Europe remained in the range of $200-400 roundtrip more or less roundtrip. This was typically to combat Norwegian and WOW Air no-frills rates, but WOW went out of business a year prior to COVID-19. Norwegian has pulled out of long-haul flights (though I believe they will soon recant this) for a year. Pricing pressure won’t be a factor unless airlines add surplus capacity before they can fill the seats.

While recovery is starting to show and countries re-open, 2019 was the pinnacle of all travel based on passenger numbers. Given solely the structural changes, I have doubts that replacement aircraft will be able to keep up with unscheduled retirements.

Some travelers will be hesitant to return to destinations that are not yet out of the woods. Others won’t want to fly long distances whereby the visitor experience may be limited, altered, or lacking.

As such, my prediction is that Peak Travel may not occur again until at least early 2022. That said, there’s a possibility that it never returns to 2019 levels.

Conclusion

Peak Travel, as experienced in 2019, was great for travel businesses as well as travellers everywhere. I am not convinced that carriers will be able to return to peak levels for at least a couple of years if ever. Airlines and hotel chains may be scared that their businesses are susceptible to aspects outside their control and be more cautious going forward.

What do you think? Will we see Peak Travel return? If so, when do you think it will happen? If not, why not?

Previous Article The First Place I’ll Travel When This is Over
Next Article Data Points Suggest Fast Recovery for Travel Industry

About Author

Kyle Stewart

Kyle is a freelance travel writer with contributions to Time, the Washington Post, MSNBC, Yahoo!, Reuters, Huffington Post, MapHappy, Live And Lets Fly and many other media outlets. He is also co-founder of Scottandthomas.com, a travel agency that delivers "Travel Personalized." He focuses on using miles and points to provide a premium experience for his wife and daughter. Email: sherpa@thetripsherpa.com

Follow us on FacebookFollow us on Twitter

Related Posts

  • runway incursion

    Close Call: Two Airliners Narrowly Avoid Runway Catastrophe

    February 5, 2023
  • Qatar Airways Al Safwa Lounge Review

    Review: Qatar Airways First Class Al Safwa Lounge

    January 25, 2023
  • Marriott Elites Soft Landing, Hyatt Globalists Back To 2019 Levels

    January 8, 2023

4 Comments

  1. Jason Reply
    June 14, 2020 at 2:28 pm

    I don’t understand why you’re capitalizing the term peak travel? It’s not a proper term or a formal name? Odd. Anyway, everybody has their predictions as to when travel will resume. After 9/11, traffic levels in the US didn’t recover to pre 9/11 levels for 3 years. With business travel showing no signs of coming back anytime soon, I can’t imagine we’d see traffic getting back to pre covid levels anytime soon. While we are seeing some resilient leisure travel this summer, the real test will come if/ when biz travel resumes in the fall. It’s not certain that’s happening.

  2. Arthur Reply
    June 14, 2020 at 5:53 pm

    It’s not that people are afraid of traveling now, but business meetings will not recommence until the hotels are dependable, things are open, there are no 14 day quarantines, and companies are willing to authorize travel. That may take some time.

  3. Flighteye Reply
    June 14, 2020 at 8:40 pm

    That image you selected is a few years old -it’s Qatar’s old airport business class terminal. Was there to experience only premium class pax in a massive ‘lounge’ building with gates and nice leather seat bus transfer through a massive field of widebody aircraft.

    • Kyle Stewart Reply
      June 14, 2020 at 9:16 pm

      It’s merely a photo of a number of idle Qatar Airways widebodies, which are idle today as they wait for the resumption of operations.

Leave a Reply

Cancel reply

Search

Recent Posts

  • Spirit brawl
    Brawl: Spirit Airlines Employees Drawn Into Gate Fight February 5, 2023
  • runway incursion
    Close Call: Two Airliners Narrowly Avoid Runway Catastrophe February 5, 2023
  • belarus journalist arrested on ryanair flight
    Couple Abandon Child At Airport Over €25 Fee February 5, 2023
  • United Airlines Steakhouse Cheeseburger
    Steakhouse Cheeseburger On United Airlines February 4, 2023

Categories

Popular Posts

  • Spirit Airlines Captain Runs Out Of Cockpit After Woman Yells “I Hope Y’All Crash And Die!” January 17, 2023
  • Hotel Worker entered room
    Woman Demands $3,000 In Compensation After Hotel Worker Walked Into Her Room At Midnight January 24, 2023
  • United Airlines 2023 Status Extension
    United Airlines Quietly Extends MileagePlus Premier Status…Again January 14, 2023
  • United Airlines Polaris Meal Service: The Sad State Of Affairs January 27, 2023

Archives

February 2023
M T W T F S S
 12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
2728  
« Jan    

As seen on:

live_and_lets_fly

The new United Polaris Lounge at Washington Dulles The new United Polaris Lounge at Washington Dulles is the most beautiful of all Polaris Lounges. Stay tuned for a detailed look and many more photos on the blog tomorrow. Well done @united.
@malaysiaairlines just announced it would retire i @malaysiaairlines just announced it would retire its A380 fleet. While not surprising, it is sad to see the growing list of carriers retiring this superjumbo jet. On Malaysia Airlines, I flew the #A380 once from Kuala Lumpur (KUL) to London (LHR) and had the entire first class cabin to myself (full review on the blog). It was a beautiful flight that I will always remember.
Welcome to @fly_bur @aveloair! I am so excited tha Welcome to @fly_bur @aveloair! I am so excited that a new carrier, Avelo, has launched, especially from an airport just 12 minutes from my home!
I greatly miss the @lufthansa #747-8 at @flylaxair I greatly miss the @lufthansa #747-8 at @flylaxairport. Hopefully this summer it will return.

.
.
.
.
#Lufthansa #FirstClass #747 #747-8 #StarAlliance #Miles #Points
I recently spent a weekend at the @ventanabigsur. I recently spent a weekend at the @ventanabigsur. This is not only a lovely, all-inclusive resort, but one of the best properties to use your @hyatt World of Hyatt points.
.
.
.
.
#Hyatt #BigSur #California #WorldofHyatt #CA-1 #Points #Hotels
In terms of a spacious first class product, the @E In terms of a spacious first class product, the @Emirates suite on a 777-300ER is hard to beat. My preference is Suite 2K.

.
.
.
.
#Emirates #777 #firstclass
Nearly five years ago, I took a “break” from I Nearly five years ago, I took a “break” from Instagram ahead of the birth of my first child. Goodness, how time flies. While I’ve enjoyed catching up on others over the years, now it is time for me to return to Instagram. In this first post, I highlight two joys in my life, my two children, whom I trust will grow up to be prolific travelers that circumnavigate the globe as ambassadors of love and respect.

.
.
.
.
.

#travel #airplanes #airlines #miles #points #familytravel #human #integrity #honor
United Airlines' new Polaris seat is a huge improv United Airlines' new Polaris seat is a huge improvement over UA's current business class seat. Check out my blog at liveandletsfly.com for 70+ photos of how @united is transforming its entire business class experience starting this December!
The perfect @flysas name tag for #Longyearben! The perfect @flysas name tag for #Longyearben!
Spotted four #polarbear outside of #longyearbyen - Spotted four #polarbear outside of #longyearbyen -- oh, and I love 40°F summer weather!
One of the best crews I have ever had the pleasure One of the best crews I have ever had the pleasure of flying with in all my years of flying. Thank you @flysas SK940 on 11 Aug 2016
Next stop ARN! But dear @flysas , next time if I a Next stop ARN! But dear @flysas , next time if I assign a window seat months in advance, don't move me to a center seat "for my convenience" with no way to get my original seat back... 😞
Ready for #PIA from #MAN to #JFK -- we will be rac Ready for #PIA from #MAN to #JFK -- we will be racing the #Delta flight to JFK at the gate next to us, which also departs at 12:45p. With @onemileatatime
Another room with a beautiful view... #hyattregenc Another room with a beautiful view... #hyattregencycasablanca #cassablanca #hyatt
Enjoying #shanghai with @onemileatatime from the i Enjoying #shanghai with @onemileatatime from the inside of the @grandhyatt_shanghai ... It is 40°C outside! 😓
From my front gate to my boarding gate in 15 minut From my front gate to my boarding gate in 15 minutes flat. I ❤️ #bur #burbankairport
@malaysiaairlines #747 out of retirement and in se @malaysiaairlines #747 out of retirement and in service at #kul -- beautiful livery!
View from my 61st floor room at the beautiful bran View from my 61st floor room at the beautiful brand new @parkhyattguangzhou -- look for a full review coming soon on the blog #hyatt #parkhyatt #guangzhou #parkhyattguangzhou
Will miss the @united #globalfirstlounge at #ord, Will miss the @united #globalfirstlounge at #ord, which closes tomorrow and the Queen of the Skies #747 which will be retired in 2018.
The colonial #architecture of #mumbai is stunning. The colonial #architecture of #mumbai is stunning. If you're ever here, get up at 5am and have a walk around the city before it gets busy. You can hear the birds instead of honking horns.
Load More... Follow on Instagram
facebook twitter instagram rss

This site is for entertainment purposes only. The owner of this site is not an investment advisor, financial planner, nor legal or tax professional and articles here are of an opinion and general nature and should not be relied upon for individual circumstances.

 

Advertiser Disclosure: Some links to credit cards and other products on this website will earn an affiliate commission. Outside of banner ads published through the Boarding Area network, this compensation does not impact how and where products appear on this site. While we do try to list all the best miles and points deals, the site does not include all card companies or credit card offers available in the marketplace. Please view our advertising policy page for additional details about our partners.

 

Editorial Disclosure: The editorial content on this page is not provided by any entity mentioned herein. Opinions expressed here are the author's alone, and have not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of these entities.