The New York Times profiles Delta Air Lines as a carrier content to keep gently refining a winning formula. That may be wise, but it also raises a fair question: will Delta eventually run into the same problem Southwest did?
The Delta Air Lines Model Is Working, But Is Delta Getting Too Comfortable?
A new New York Times profile of Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian offers a fascinating look at the airline that has long been the envy of others in the U.S. industry.
Delta is the most profitable U.S. airline. It has spent years courting premium passengers, building lounges, improving operational reliability, deepening its American Express relationship, and (incredulously, in my mind) building SkyMiles into a “loyalty machine.”
Bastian’s view is that Delta does not need radical change because Delta has been making the right smaller decisions all along:
“Sometimes, if you have to make big decisions, you haven’t been making the right decisions all along. It’s far more important to be making timely decisions as you go and have a strategy that you’re aligned with. And if you have to course-correct, if you have to tweak, you can do it without having to disrupt the organization.”
On the one hand, it is hard to argue with the results. Delta is usually a pleasure to fly, flights tend to run on time, and its lounges are strong. Long-term, the airline has a growing fleet and a network that will continue to grow with it. Delta employees, at their best, help make the flying experience even more pleasant.
But the article also made me wonder whether Delta is edging toward complacency.
Delta Is Not In A Rut, But The Status Quo Can Be A Snare
At this point, I do not think Delta is in a rut the way Southwest was in a rut prior to its radical changes to the business model.
Delta has invested in premium cabins, Delta One Lounges, free Wi-Fi, international partnerships, technology, and higher-value customers. It has built a customer base that is willing to pay more for the more premium experience.
Bastian even says that some of Delta’s best customers no longer shop on price:
“Our best customers don’t even look at the price.”
That is a remarkable achievement, and it explains a lot about Delta’s financial success. But there is a danger in success.
Southwest also had a model that worked beautifully for decades. Its culture was real: beautifully simple and operationally sound. But gradually, the world changed around it. What had once been a brilliant model began to look dated.
Delta is not Southwest, but no airline is immune from the danger of believing its own playbook is permanently superior.
To his credit, Bastian seems somewhat aware of that danger. Speaking to employees, he said:
“There’s only one thing that can stop us. We start to believe that we’re better.”
That is exactly right. The question is whether Delta can keep that humility while sitting at the top of the industry, especially when Bastian may say that but actually believes Delta is not only better, but already the best.
Kirby Vs. Bastian
The most interesting comparison is United, which the NYT story directly makes.
Scott Kirby is not Ed Bastian. He is much more aggressive, blunter, willing to make big bets, and sometimes too eager to remind everyone that United’s strategy is brilliant.
But Kirby is undeniably hungry.
United is expanding aggressively internationally, adding premium seats, rolling out Starlink across the fleet, and building a more interesting longhaul network. It is adding 250 new aircraft over the next two years and like Delta, trying to court premium customers who won’t look twice when booking an airline ticket.
Kirby even told the New York Times that Delta pioneered the premium strategy, but United has now passed it:
“They’re still really good, but we passed them.”
Hubris is always dangerous and that sentiment is premature, at least based on profitability. United also still has service inconsistencies and rough edges that Delta generally manages better.
But Kirby’s bravado aside, United is an airline trying to leapfrog while Delta is an airline protecting and refining what already works.
Maybe that is enough and is exactly why Delta will keep winning…but maybe not.
Amazon Leo Versus Starlink Is The Clearest Example
The Delta versus United contrast is clearest on inflight connectivity.
United is moving quickly with Starlink and plans to install it across its fleet by the end of next year. Starlink is already proven, fast, and passenger-friendly…I find it absolutely game-changing and go out of my way to seek aircraft that are equipped with it.
Delta is choosing Amazon Leo, but installations will not begin until 2028.
I understand Delta’s logic and have defended it. Amazon may be the better long-term digital partner, bringing retailing, Prime, gaming, data, advertising, and broader integration into Delta’s loyally business model. Delta is not just buying Wi-Fi; it is building a customer data and engagement platform.
> Read More: Delta CEO Brushes Off Elon Musk, Says Amazon Offers More Than Starlink
> Read More: Delta Air Lines Passed On Starlink For A Reason More Valuable Than Wi-Fi
But passengers do not care about that: they just want faster Wi-Fi now. Bastian dismissed the idea that United is closing the gap where it matters:
“That’s the market telling you what they think about the durability and the differentiation of the Delta experience.”
He was referring to Delta’s stock performance, which has held up better than United and other major U.S. carriers during the current geopolitical crisis in Iran.
Fair enough, the market does like Delta (Berkshire Hathaway just acquired a 6% stake in Delta). So do customers. But the market liked Southwest for a long time too!
Delta’s Playbook Still Works
The article ends with Bastian emphasizing continuity:
“We’re just continuing to operate our playbook. We’re always thinking about ways we can enhance it, improve it, but our strategy is pretty clear.”
That is the key line.
Delta’s playbook is clear. It is also very good…arguably the best playbook in U.S. aviation right now. But playbooks age!
The danger is that Delta is so good at doing the current things that it may be slower to recognize when the next things matter more. Just putting it out there for discussion.
CONCLUSION
The New York Times profile of Ed Bastian highlights why Delta remains the strongest U.S. airline. Its culture is real and its pioneering premium strategy works. Kudos to Delta for what it has built.
But I do think the Southwest warning applies. The status quo works wonderfully until it suddenly does not.
Delta is not in a rut. It is still a pleasure to fly, operationally sound, and well-positioned for growth. But United is hungry, and Kirby seems to be thinking several steps ahead while Delta appears more content to keep gently refining the status quo.
Maybe Bastian is right. Maybe the secret is avoiding giant course corrections because the airline has been making the right smaller decisions all along. Or maybe Delta is just getting too complacent.
Time will tell….
i like Scottie, except his mouth. He is seemingly a great tactician. Delta has been plodding along, almost always being the best, for 100 years.
Delta will continue to be a slightly better carrier, and perhaps that translates into a better investment. My vision is cloudy on that issue.
I find it interesting that nowhere in this well stated analysis there is no mention of AA. I don’t disagree. AA seems far behind both DL and UA – although you have noted a few times recently that they seemed to have finally pivoted towards a better customer experience. I wonder whether, as DL and UA battle it out in public, AA might quietly behind the scenes become a stronger competitor. Of course that would require AA ditching their bargain basement former US Airways management mentality. Certainly all three airlines competed in the “race to the bottom” in the back of the plane, and the battle today seems entirely in the front of the plane (and perhaps in the middle as well with Premium Economy) but I wouldn’t count AA out. They also have a strong loyalty program, are paying attention to the customer experience, have finally refocused on international routes once again (bye bye Vasu Raja), and just might end up being the “Dark Horse” in this race.
I’ll just say that I am rooting for AA! The more competition the better.
Interesting comment, “Our best customers don’t even look at the price.” I flew Delta almost exclusively for 20 years. No more. The loyalty program is now a joke. The Diamond promise is immediate upgrade to Comfort Plus when purchasing Main Cabin. My wife and I recently flew Delta, it took two weeks for Comfort Plus upgrades to clear. We had to change the return flight and there is no way to do that without sacrificing your seats on the outbound leg. So, back of the bus for us. Two weeks ago, I booked another flight for September and still have not been upgraded to Comfort Plus, despite seats being available. I now shop price, three of our last five international flights have been on other carriers. We snagged Emirates Business Class for half the price of Delta One. My neighbor travels internationally monthly for business and was exclusively Delta for years. He recently told me he now books fare and schedule on whatever airline fits best. Delta may not be complacent, but their leadership has become exceedingly arrogant.
the sad thing is that UA including its execs are deluded into thinking that they have closed the gap with DL.
They beat DL in cancellation rates and on-time by a percent for a couple months but still lose a higher percentage of bags than any other US airline.
UA’s financial results have been boosted for years by underpaying its labor. Only now as fuel prices soar and UA can hide behind fuel costs is UA finally getting around to settling w/ its labor groups.
Let’s get back later this year and compare UA and DL’s financial results but UA only delivered two-thirds of DL’s profits even though UA flew 10% more ASMs than DL.
DL is far enough out in front because they have made the right decisions for years and years. As much as AA and UA and WN think they can close the gap, DL simply has a number of structural advantages including DL’s hub dominance, the refinery, its largely non-union workforce, and its growing MRO revenues that no other airline – US or foreign – can duplicate.
and DL’s real move relative to UA will come as DL puts in service its first 20 A350-1000s which will be the most capable and efficient in the US carrier fleet – which no other US carrier will have.
If UA’s strength is the Pacific, DL will very quickly neutralize that advantage over a pretty short period of time.
DL is indeed ahead of the crowd and will stay that way.
Delta’s problem is that Satan can call in the blood-signed contract that Richard Anderson did with him at any time, and even he’s getting sick of Bastian. Expect a large burning vortex coming from the south end of Atlanta sometime soon. It’ll be just like Sherman, only a lot more beautiful.
What do you think DL should be doing then? Besides the Starlink/Amazon issue? For me one area they are lagging in conpared to UA is their network to and within Asia (though nowhere near as bad as AA is in Asia).
Which is fairly ironic, as DL merged with Northwest, which had a strong Asia/Pacific network (remember it was originally named “Northwest Orient”) and yet now falls behind UA (which got the start of their Pacific network from Pan Am).
“Our best customers don’t even look at the price” comment is complacency right there.