Each day, there’s a bit more information that leaks about the rumored imminent partnership between JetBlue Airways and United Airlines. Rather than fixate on the partnership itself, I want to focus on how United Airlines would serve New York Kennedy if this partnership includes a return to JFK for United with 20 slot pairs.
How Would United Airlines Utilize 20 JFK Slot Pairs?
I think the answer is clear…we need only look at the words of CEO Scott Kirby.
The latest twist in the stream of rumors is a claim that as part of the partnership, United will gain access to 20 slot pairs (20 takeoffs and 20 landings each day) and access to two boarding gates from JetBlue.
Before we discuss how United would operate 20 flights per day at JFK, let’s review a bit of history first.
A Brief History Of United’s Struggles At New York JFK
In February 2021, United returned to New York JFK with four flights per day: two to Los Angeles (LAX) and two to San Francisco (SFO). The routes resumed utilizing United’s “High-J” 767-300, which featured 46 business class seats in a 1-1-1 configuration along with a premium economy section and a small economy class section.
By August 2021, it faced a dilemma: with only two flights per day between each of its West Coast hubs, there simply wasn’t enough scheduled service available to meaningfully pick off travelers from American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, JetBlue, and Alaska Airlines.
In October 2021, United downgauged all four JFK flights from the 767 to a much smaller 757-200 with an inferior business class seat and no premium economy.
By September 2022, United threatened to leave JFK if it was not allocated additional slots from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). At the time, it said:
“The reason is simple: without permanent slots, we can’t serve JFK effectively compared to the larger schedules and more attractive flight times flown by our competitors. For example, JetBlue currently flies to Los Angeles six times more often from JFK than United does and American flies there more than four times as frequently.”
It also argued that JFK could handle more traffic and United should be awarded more traffic rights:
“More specifically, JFK has four total runways (compared to just three at Newark – EWR) – two pairs of parallel runways – with the ability to consistently shift between two arrival or two departure runways to accommodate arrival or departure demand spikes. Yet, the airport capacity has remained the same: 81 operations per hour since 2008, just two more movements per hour than EWR’s stated limit of 79.”
But the pleas fell on deaf ears, and by the end of October 2022, United (once again, like in 2015) suspended JFK service.
> Read More:
- United JFK Employees Say Goodbye to Home, Hello to Uncertainty
- United Airlines Faces JFK Dilemma
- Confirmed: United Airlines Suspends JFK Service (Again)
- My Office Is A 767-300 Traveling Between LAX And JFK
- United Airlines Wants To Grow At New York JFK
- United Airlines Returns To New York JFK
Scott Kirby Already Told Us What He Wants At JFK
Recall that in 2022, United applauded a potential merger between JetBlue and Spirit, with Kirby saying it would lead to United getting back to JFK “in a big way, particularly in the transcon market.”
“Well certainly the place that we, whether it’s through JetBlue or somewhere else, we would like to get back into JFK in a big way, particularly in the transcon market. So getting enough slots at JFK that we can get back to serving San Francisco and Los Angeles, particularly for business customers, and having another real option for business customers in those markets that would be our number one priority.”
That’s the answer.
Going back more than a decade, United served Washington (IAD) and London (LHR) from JFK. In its final years, it served only LAX and SFO.
Based on the words of Kirby alone, I’m confident that United would use its 20 slots pairs to launch 10 flights per day to SFO and 10 flights per day to LAX. Well-timed flights throughout the day would be far more effective than a single morning and evening departure to each West Coast hub and the same is true in the opposite direction.
If United did utilize two JetBlue gates in T5, it could theoretically take over the shuttered AerLingus lounge to create lounge space (JetBlue also plans to open its own lounge in late 2025 at JFK, and more likely, United would use that).
CONCLUSION
I don’t mean to get ahead of ourselves here, but this kind of speculation is a lot of fun…but also rather obvious if you simply trace back the words of Kirby. Yes, United has made clear for years it wants to return to JFK and in so doing, operate transcontinental routes. That should come as no surprise. I don’t expect other new routes. And with AA A321Ts falling apart, there’s potential here.
But my question remains: What’s in it for JetBlue beyond more United flyers being exposed to its product? Is that enough to give another player, particularly one focused on creating a premium experience, a foot in the door on JetBlue’s bread and butter routes?
We’ll see…but if the deal is for 20 slot pairs has been reported, you can bet the service will be to SFO and LAX.
@ Matthew — Being back 3-cabin p.s…..The good ole days! 🙂
Those were great days! ONT-TPA!!!
I agree. Along with that rack of lamb they use to serve between IAD and LHR. Some of the best airline food I ever had. How could they go so low?
The lamb was always good on UA!
https://liveandletsfly.com/best-first-class-united-meal/
I clicked on some of the old links you included in the story. I actually have fond memories of the old 757. Choose the middle section so you don’t have to step over some one to use the restroom. Comfy seats that seemed to offer more sleep than the tight equivalents offered these days.
For eg Ben just reviewed aer lingus and noted the desirability of the throne seat (always aspired to on Swiss). I looked at it and thought no thanks!! Too tight and claustrophobic.
Seats were comfortable, but I just don’t like sitting next to a stranger. Darn millennials! 😉
Is there really enough demand to fill 10 flights to each every day? Would Jetblue scale back? Or would UA reduce EWR flights?
I have the same question…I would think it would be upgrade heaven for United elites.
Nope, UA would again heavily discount those seats to win back corporate passengers within the entertainment division. For example UA offered ABC/Disney/ESPN a 51% discount on the FC airfare – which is equivalent to a B economy fare, thus accomplishing a double upgrade on the 757ps.
i originally thought it would not be all transcons. maybe 5 each to sfo and lax. i thought united would maybe add other hub flights to jfk to free up ewr to some newer destinations. i guess not
Could be – we will see. I just don’t see IAH/DEN/ORD-JFK service on United…not enoguh slots to make it work. But it’s all a guess now.
I imagine that we’ll see something closer to six flights each to LAX/SFO, with supplements to some combo of LHR and UA’s hubs.
Personal notes:
I prefer Mint to UA’s transcon premium.
With B6 starting to add a conventional domestic F to its fleet, I’ve already been planning to shift more of my flying to them. Add a UA relationship, and I’ll probably have a loyalty favorite for the first time since before the pandemic, and will chase MileagePlus status.
I know everyone is talking about FLL, but with MCO as my home airport, I’m hoping UA beefs up its presence here; moves into the snazzy, B6-dominated terminal C; and adds long-haul flights to Europe and South America.
I’d actaully like to see that, but I don’t think we’ll see routes to other hubs or to London again (look at how BOS-LHR failed spectacularly). But let’s wait and see.
speculation is fine but it is often disconnected from reality.
B6 cannot negotiate w/ UA about what markets UA would serve if B6 leased slots to UA. That would be collusion. If B6 leases slots to UA, B6 runs the risk that UA can add service in B6′ best markets which are the Mint transcons.
UA could grab the slots, set up competition in B6′ best markets and then cancel the agreement, leaving B6 with competition in its most valuable markets.
and let’s not forget that UA’s biggest target in all of this is AA which carries a fraction of the amount of JFK transcon traffic that B6 and DL carry. it doesn’t take a rocket scientist – and there are a few of those at the DOJ – to realize that knocking AA out of the JFK market significantly reduces the competitive environment in NYC and that is not good for consumers, no matter how much UA’s exec team fantasizes about it.
I feel B6 is giving up the family jewels. Once United has its foot in the door, it will never return the JFK slots, no matter if the slots are on a lease basis. Kirby will drag this through the courts for millennium just for a handful of slots. JetBlue is getting nothing out of this part of the deal. If you want an example of a cat fight, look at Delta and WN for one single gate at Dallas Love Field utilized only 5 times a day by Delta. More lawyer fees spent versus revenue earned.
Better for B6 to join the alliance and be the dominant Star rep at JFK providing domestic service for Star Euro carriers at JFK, BOS , SJU, and FLL as well.
The twist here is that United has veto rights for a new carrier joining Star. It can also shepherd a new carrier in.
I suspect the price for B6 joining Star…and enjoying connectivity from the Star Alliance network…was the slot leases at JFK.
A shrewd deal from United, indeed…it allows UA tor return to JFK with enough flights to make sense and opens the door for B6 to enjoy feeder traffic from a numebr of Star carriers.
It’s a pact with the devil!!
I wonder if 20 slots (10 pairs) got mis-translated into 20 pairs for the rumor. That would seem more feasible to start off, 5x/day to SF and LA or 6x SF 4x LA
Could be. And I think even that would be enough to be viable.
While I can’t find the exact comments now (only 2 minutes of Googling). Kirby also stated in the past that he wanted to connect additional hubs to JFK beyond LAX and SFO and also that UA had lost corporate contracts due to its lack of access at JFK, leading me to believe this is not just about transcon service. I don’t think UA would be doing 10x daily on each SFO and LAX as other commenters have pointed out
DL currently flies 6x daily on SFO and 9x daily on LAX. I could see something where these numbers are reversed for UA, maybe 5x daily LAX and 7x daily SFO for 13 of the slots. I could then see UA adding (or moving from EWR) 2 LHR flights and possibly an FRA flight from JFK. Then with the other 6 slots I could easily see 2x daily to DEN and ORD and 1x to IAH. I think the goal would also be to eventually get more slots from B6 in order to connect to UAs network.
I don’t think JFK can work if it is not connected to the rest of the UA network via its mid-con hubs.
If they do end up going ahead with 10 daily to LAX and SFO, I’m assuming this could mean downguages out of EWR to less heavies and more 752s?
it would also certainly mean that DL starts EWR transcons.
This would be ideal – EWR is a preferable O&D airport for New York City for me, and I’d prefer competition on the routes. Although I wouldn’t expect DL to fight back much on the UA JFK invasion given DL has a strong LGA presence they can use.
neither DL or any other airline can fly from LGA to the west coast other than on Saturday which has been shown not to be worth while.
If UA can operate from both JFK and EWR to the west coast, DL will certainly do it as well.
the arrival of the premium transcon A321NEOs for all 3 airlines could be well-timed for a rough and tunble skirmish between the big 3 in transcon markets.
Whatever happens the transcons flights whether from EWR or JFK need to be consistent – last time there was a dual operations, United flew some 737s to LAX and SFO from EWR. Also – a BOS/LHR route my now succeed with all teh B6 customers in Boston…?
UA also cannot neglect EWR. It’s a strong hub with great connectivity and UA has invested a lot into improving the airport experience. It’s much better than it was and when the PATH extension opens, it will be easier than ever to reach.
I would love to see UAL get back into JFK but why 20 transcon (only) flights a day? Use at least a few slots for other points west – Denver or Phoenix as well. You’ve got DL, AA with plenty of transcon flights on them and you want to hog this market as well ? How about a little imagination to other cities and perhaps even get back to JFK-IAD as well and feed some international connections that way.
If what you’re reporting here is correct, this would appear to very much be a “deal with the devil” as commenter ‘Exit Row Seat’ has already noted. Based on earlier comments from United CEO Scott Kirby about how he really wanted to be back in JFK, but questioned whether or not all the “headache” and “brain damage” of a merger would be worth the trouble for a few slots, I think it’s safe to say IF United were to get 20 slots from JetBlue they would have very little motivation to proceed with a full merger/acquisition after they get the thing they want from JetBlue. Knowing this in advance, and also knowing that the JFK to West Coast Mint Trans-con product is the bread and butter and the crown jewel of Jet Blue’s business model, WHY would Jet Blue be willing to give up this up to a very large, dangerous and hungry competitor without a full buyout offer with generous incentives to B6 management and board members? I understand you’re speculating this a hostage deal with B6 surrendering their NYC to LAX/SFO Mint product in exchange for Star Alliance membership, but can JetBlue survive feeding vacationing Star Alliance foreigners to south Florida and the Caribbean with no Trancon market, and Delta slowly squeezing them to death in BOS and JFK? This kind of deal making seems like an accelerate of B6 demise not a lifeline.
Of course everything is speculative and unconfirmed, but the outlines of the deal you are sketching here seem very hard to believe. If this is all United is offering, JetBlue should partner with another “partner”. This sounds like Pan Am or TWA being parted out and destroyed.