At the beginning of the coronavirus crisis, the message was all about flattening the curve to stay ahead of the virus, but is travel still going to return once the curve is flattened?
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Flattening The Curve
When COVID-19 first started carving its way around the world, the concern was being able to treat sick people in hospital beds. The “curve” represented the rise that could be absorbed by hospitals and the goal was to slow the infection to ensure that hospitals were not overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients to the point the system wouldn’t be able to handle the influx. The goal was to suppress infections to a sustainable level.
According to Johns Hopkins University, that curve has flattened in most states. In particular, the most populous states with the exception of Texas and North Carolina have succeeded in that endeavor – though the timeline might have been longer than desirable.
Return of Life and Travel As We Know It
Once the virus was under control, life was expected to return to normal as we knew it before. That was never going to happen in at least one sense. The world and her citizenry would be more vigilant with sanitation, more cautious of being in public ill, and companies quicker to act substantially at the first sign of a new virus.
Some companies have so adeptly altered their basic business constructs that perhaps the world would never be the same again regardless. Including, and especially with regard to travel for employees.
While everyone may be wary of mass crowds for some time, the thought of never again heading through a crowded security checkpoint doesn’t seem realistic.
What’s The New Goal?
The curve has been flattened, but the virus isn’t gone. But that was never the goal, at least not a practical one. The virus may remain for years, or worse, decades. Even with a vaccine, polio took four decades to eradicate, the influenza vaccine is widely available but still claims up to 61,000 lives every year in the US alone. That’s for a virus that is a mostly known entity, COVID-19 was novel so while 200,000 people is an incredibly large number (94% with an average of 2.6 co-morbidities, 6% purely COVID-19), in a few years time, it may be equal to the flu or even less.
So what is the new goal? After all, the original parameter was simply to make the virus serviceable by hospitals. Now that the curve has been mostly flattened (if not entirely in the US), it seems that the new goal is full eradication. If that’s the case, will we never return to moving around the world? Will it only be in the event of an effective vaccine? What will be the benchmark for effectiveness? Is the Flu vaccine an effective comparison?
Many of these questions are rhetorical. My point is that as long and painful as 2020 has been – and it has been all of that more – if the goalposts for a return to travel keep moving, it will be impossible to achieve them. The public won’t continue on in this regard indefinitely, especially if a vaccine is the new goalpost and it’s not reached for many years.
Conclusion
While flattening the curve was originally the criteria for travel returning to normal, it seems the goalposts have moved to a vaccine. That could take years and cost millions of jobs around the world and is simply untenable. There won’t be any airlines left to fly, no hotels left to stay in. We need to be true to the original guidance, and if the curve is flattened, it’s time to get back to travelling.
What do you think? Why have the goalposts moved? Do you think the curve is flattened? Is progress temporary?
The points and miles community is about to find out how about much their “hobby” was supported by businesses willing to pay for very expensive business class fares.
Why should businesses pay for expensive flights and hotel rooms if they can get they same result from a Zoom call? (Yes, I know, edgelord points and miles collector, it won’t eliminate customer visits and in person visits 100%. But there’s a lot of fat shareholders wouldn’t mind wringing out. Bonus, less CO2.)
You may be proven correct.
The “6% of COVID cases had no comorbitities” figure is extremely misleading. According to the link, comorbidities can include things like pneumonia, respiratory distress syndrome, and respiratory failure, all of which can be caused by COVID. The standard death certificate includes multiple lines specifically so that the medical examiner can give a cause of death like “respiratory failure due to COVID.”
@Eric – I think your bone to pick is with the CDC who published the stat, not the writer that took them at their word.
It’s very hard to pin down cause of deaths in these cases and likely there was some missing data too (see one of my earlier blogs on the subject: https://www.strategic-solutions-inc.com/covid-19-what-happens-next-for-the-usa/
Thank you for submitting this, it’s always helpful to have more information.
@Kyle, I think it’s highly disappointing to not take fair criticism.
As “the writer who takes things at their word” it’s your responsibility to portray the wider context especially since the misleading statistic is being used to erroneously support your case.
@David: I welcome criticism, but the issue seemed to be with the veracity of the statistic used so I am clarifying that the CDC is the publisher of the statistic reported. Further, I also mention the broader number (nearly 200,000 total US deaths) elsewhere in the post. I also included data from John Hopkins which speaks to the entire country on a state-by-state basis. The wider picture is available. Because the 6% deaths stat solely based on COIVD-19 with no co-morbidities is less publicized, I included the link in order to qualify the information.
You indicate that the stat was used erroneously, but it seemed to me (and feel free to correct me if I’m wrong) that rather, the original commenter objected to the statistic itself, that the information was incorrect because some of the co-morbidities were in relation to COVID-19. If the CDC comes out tomorrow and says “forget facemasks, they are useless” you may object to their directive, but it doesn’t mean the information is false or incorrectly used.
John Hopkins lists all presumptive reported cases. CDC data filters in much slower.
Based on CDC stats in link:
6% Pure COVID deaths 11,308 (no comorbidities)
OR
0.0056 of YTD 2,022,937 deaths
All tallied COVID deaths 188,470
OR
0.093 of YTD 2,022,937 deaths
I agree wholeheartedly for travel and life in general. Society can’t continue like this much longer. Wouldn’t it be wiser to protect the vulnerable, but allow low risk people to have somewhat of a life again? That being said I am all for continuing to wear masks and to social distance when possible, but these regulations are causing people to lose businesses that took them years to build. I can’t even travel to most other states without being subject to a 2 week quarantine upon return.
Like many medical terms, “comorbitdities” can be interpreted differently depending on the context. While the CDC is just aggregating death certificate data, a lot of people have taken the 94%/6% figure to mean that 94% of COVID deaths were already sick with something before getting COVID. This is not the case. There is nothing wrong with the stat itself (as far as I know), but I would like to see more context so that your readers don’t misinterpret what it means.
@Eric – That’s fair. So that I can improve, how would you suggest I position that stat?
To be honest I don’t think it adds much, and the article reads basically the same if you take out that parenthetical. If you want to make the point that healthy people are unlikely to die of COVID, I’d pull out specific chronic diseases that probably aren’t COVID-related from the CDC link—for example, 22% of COVID deaths also had hypertension, 16% had diabetes, 9% had chronic lung disease, 4% were obese, and so on. Unfortunately I don’t see an easy way to see which of those COVID deaths had multiple chronic conditions.
This blog post from a Johns Hopkins epidemiologist puts this co-morbidity stat in much better context, by including information about “excess deaths”, i.e., the number of deaths above what would have happened in a normal year. That way you properly factor in those with co-moribities, a certain percentage of whom might have died this year also anyway.
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/09/01/comorbidities-and-coronavirus-deaths-cdc/
“Looking at 2020 since March, the raw number of excess deaths is 200,000 more people than a normal year. When we try to understand that, COVID-19 is the most rational and likely explanation. If you don’t believe it’s COVID-19, try to pinpoint why this year has been so different than any other. Why would a new disease that kills people not be the cause?”
3% died in Hospice from COVID. Premature death feom COVID, in Hospice? Per CDC stats. Ironic?
but then again:
20%. Died in nursing homes
Conventional understanding and use of Comorbidities – are pre-existing health conditions, not auxiliary manifestation of an infection. Most people don’t live with underlying
pnuemonia.
65% died inpatient setting (hospitalized) admitted or from nosocomial infection?
The conclusion to this article is absurd to say the least. Yes, businesses will fail and jobs will be lost (I am part of those losing their job), however things shift and change. To say that there will be no hotels or airlines left is a bit of a stretch. Even if demand remained where it is today for an extended period, it means airlines and hotels right-size their companies and learn to live with the new normal. Look at United, they used to run hourly transcons between EWR-SFO and are now down to 3/4x daily, not the same convenience but it still exists.
Everyone needs to take a hard look at what is going on right now and try to understand things are not going back to the pre-pandemic level any time soon, if ever.
@ David — The hourly flights are a mirage to appease inpatient Americans. A significant percentage don’t operate on time due to congestion anyway. I suspect that has improved with less flights.
I think you are overthinking this…
1) Travel is already “back” for a significant amount of leisure travelers. Hotels are about half full, millions of people fly every week
2) More leisure travel will return as various leisure attractions (sports, restaurants, museums, etc) come back on line. This is happening every week. Florida will basically be fully reopen for tourism for the winter, Hawaii is reopening, etc.
3) Business travel will be back when things like indoor meetings and conferences are deemed desirable and safe. This will happen when the individual participants can get vaccines, when spread reduces further, and when the corporate entities are ready. This will happen gradually across 2021 and 2022. Without this business travel, the economics of travel as previously set up won’t really work
Travel wil
@ Kyle — I don’t think they meant 50,000 cases per day when they said the goal was to “flatten the curve”. That’s like looking at the tip of an iceberg and calling it flat. People should absolutely NOT be travelling. If everyone would stay home, wear a mask, and vote against Orange Hitler, we would truly flatten the curve. Besides, in about 3-4 weeks, the number of cases will be 80,000 – 90,00 per day. Mark my word.
I’m not sure I ever saw the specific daily case number, but according to John Hopkins the curve has flattened below the critical line (in the most populous states.) I am open to seeing the information if you have that one, but I’m not sure how much it factors at this point.
To call it the tip of the iceberg, however, would disagree with virtually every media report, government and health official back in March and throughout the first few months.
Lastly, you may be right with regards to a spike, but I don’t see how you could be certain of this.
@ Kyle — I will go back to not reading your posts. I was happier that way.
Gene, I agree with you. People seem to just be blowing off the 200k plus dead and plenty more to come and we don’t really know what long term effects this virus causes. So sure, go out, travel, run around, go to bars, go to restaurants and whatever you want to do. Just realize you are risking your life and health and likely mine too. This is not analogous to a cold or the flue. Whether we need a vaccine or better and more effective treatments, my opinion is we should be restricting non essential travel and other activities for as long as we can to buy time and save lives.
It’s very clear you don’t know what flatten the curve means. New York flattened the curve. The US as a whole did not. I don’t know why I come to Live and Lets Fly on Sundays anymore, it gets worse and worse with every week.
I am basing it off John Hopkins information and cited the cases in which they have not declared the curve to be flattened. But as you indicated, New York has flattened the curve but excludes travel (and other activities around the state) from more than just those few states that have not flattened the curve according to the data.
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Can you cite any official source for “… flattening the curve was originally the criteria for travel returning to normal”?
Flattening the curve was the goal for the widespread shutdowns, not a target for travel “returning to normal”, which is a fuzzy endpoint to begin with
@Gene-
Do you get paid to write such idiotic stuff?
I’ve been flying almost every week since January. Flew around Europe today.
Don’t wear a mask unless absolutely forced to.
Haven’t gotten coronavirus.
‘50,000’ potentially positive tests a day does not equal ‘50,000 cases’.
Unless you’re the media or famous doctor on television all the time trying to sell a story to people.
@ Howard — “Don’t wear a mask unless absolutely forced to.” And I am the idiot?
“‘50,000’ potentially positive tests a day does not equal ‘50,000 cases’.” Um, the number of POSTIVE TESTS is >40,000 per day in the US at present. The number of POTENTIAL cases is higher than that when you add in people who haven’t been tested (perhaps 2x-4x as many). I guess you don’t count a positive test as a “case” unless the person is on a ventilator or dead?
Are you also know as George?
The problem is confidence. The US government has given us little reason to have it. So now everybody’s in a ‘will believe it when I see it’ mood. And some people might never believe things are safe, which creates an environment for tectonic cultural changes (ie, death of business travel as we knew it). Many companies are beginning to realize they can get the same results with a fraction of the travel budget. Similar things are happening with remote work.
If we had a more competent response, with its spike and subsequent dramatic fall (see: South Korea, New Zealand, the US response to Ebola and avian flu), people would already be feeling more comfortable returning to old ways.
And Howard, the point isn’t just whether you’ve contracted the virus. There’s also the fact that you could be transmitting it unknowingly to people more vulnerable. Has this thought ever occurred to you?
Dan there is a huge fundamental difference in shutting down the US in toto compared to smaller countries management alone coupled with the vast differing regions of the US. As for the political side of it if thats where you were hinting the responses throughout the world varied greatly as well. If I were to fault it would be the WHO much too political and inept. John Hopkins seems to have come out of this as the leader in real time information. Just think what would have been the outcome if the US had gone into TOTAL LOCKDOWN ? I would submit chaos.
As to the article flattening will not bring back travel as one might hope rather travel as we knew it pre Covid will not be seen for a very long time. There are many many varying reasons for that on the business side as we have told our people business travel will not be “jump on a plane to see a client” The proliferation of professional / business conferences / conventions GONE. Those will be pared down dramatically that will have a cascading affect on airlines and hotels. ZOOM is in. Long haul travel who knows but right now we have cancelled two long haul international trips and not looking anytime soon.
Travel hacking hmmm
Obviously a great piece for attracting readership and commentary but no relation to reality. Business travel will shoot up as soon as it is safe. Ditto for leisure travel. But nobody with half a brain who has a choice is flying now.
May lose a few airlines and hundreds of hotels but others will take their place. That’s the nature of capitalism.
No offense – but are you color blind?
Look at the JHU chart – there are clearly more pink/red (increasing cases) than blue (decreasing) or white/clear (flat).
The whole premise of this article is…really not good.
@UA-NYC – You’ve been a faithful reader for some time (thank you) and your comments are well thought out. So much so, that I went back and looked at the link again with fresh eyes. Since writing the post (which happens throughout the week and not necessarily on the day it’s posted) the map has changed (it’s dynamically linked to reporting) for some higher population states. Earlier in the week, this map was all a shade of pale green or blue with the exception of North Carolina, Texas, and then a number of very small population states.
When written, all of the states that were shaded red had a combined population well short of the Los Angeles MSA (SD, ND, WY, IA, NE, WI, etc.) In that context, keeping New York (for example) shut down on account of outbreaks in North Dakota and Montana seemed more egregious and accounted for less than 4% of the US population. It’s not that those states don’t matter – I grew up in the Midwest – it’s that keeping close to the whole country shut down (especially from travel) to account for states that are struggling that account for such a limited number of people seemed a step too far.
That said, do you disagree that the goalposts have moved?
As others have noted, “flattened” sounds good when it’s at a much lower plateau – not 40K-50K. And it’s back on the rise (per the CNN article, might only get worse for the next month or two).
So it’s not that the goalposts have moved – it’s that the national “leadership: is impotent in every single way, and we are paying the price for 6+ months of lying, obfuscation, and incompetence.
Speaking honestly, if they said flatten the curve meant sub 90,000 cases or 900 cases, if it’s flattened, it’s flattened, right?
So you’re saying one situation 100x the other is no different? Come on man. The absolute number “flattened” at matters. The US can’t even flatten.
The “flattening the curve” goal was the first that seem attainable, that’s why it was mentioned. Eradicating the specific strain of coronavirus was impossible, at first, so decisions to choose attainable goals were made for various reasons.
Some business travel will not resume until eradication. Some business is conducted by old people, so that’s reasonable. Other business is conducted by young people, who have significant risks of post-infection health problems, even if they don’t die as much. (One healthy doctor in training, a resident, died recently in Houston at age 29 so young people are not Superman/Wonder Woman.)
For me, I have important business that can only partly be done by Zoom. I am itching to travel. However, it’s not going to happen because of the other business parties and because I have doubts about travel, too.
People who are anti-mask or who go out a lot should realize that we are in the same position as when near lockdowns happened in March. The only difference is that fewer people are dying because a certain number of people are staying home and others are going out with masks. That only shaves off the number of deaths a bit but virus particles up your nose and you still could be dead.
Finally, I must say, don’t be too cavalier. I got sick for about 5 weeks even though I am usually very healthy and have no risk factors such as being overweight or having high blood pressure. I didn’t need to go to the ICU but it was a bad illness despite being considered somewhat mild.
Kyle – As other have said, travel will continue to return slowly as confidence builds in the public. Our current polarization in the US does not really allow this and with good reason. At the same time, travel is actually quite safe and flying is different than it used to be. There is going to be a shifting new normal for the next 24 months until we can get this toxic polarization out of our system and begin to have competent leadership where information can be presented and the public can work with health officials and follow their requests and see positive outcomes. This will take time and the confidence to travel and see the US or world again will come back, but we have to grow up a bit first.
@Gene lets his true thinking show (perhaps inadvertently) in that hysteria and resistance to getting even somewhat back to the prior situation is 90% about removing Trump from office. He either views this a just another situation to take craven political advantage of, or its just another way to punish the voters for electing Trump in the first place.
@ jcil — Getting Orange Hitler out of office is more important than controlling COVID. He is a permanent threat to our society. COVID will pass one way or another. Orange Hitler is the absolute, by far worst, President in the history of the US. Everyone will see that truth eventually. Some people are just slower than others.
@Gene
Agree with you. No travel, no nothing. Don’t even eat. You will die but at least you won’t catch Covid-19 a virus that way over 98% of people get over relatively soon
I think you make a very solid point. The initial justification for all the restrictions was the need to flatten the curve. It why borders, and businesses of all descriptions were closed. But now the goal posts have clearly moved. We don’t seem capable of a rational analysis of one risk vs another.
We seem stuck in this mess with no end in sight. No clear objective that can be achieved in a reasonable timeframe. This is a travel blog so this isn’t the place to debate the causes of this. But it’s clear that it’s causing major harm not only to the travel industry but to wide swaths of society as well. Not only through direct job losses but also knock on ones as travel dependent economies watch their income dry up.
This article has significantly eroded my trust and belief in the truthfulness and factual ability of this site
really?
REALLY?
this is ludicrous
flattening the curve is a concept from a previous understanding of the virus, you quote the CDC when we all know its being manipulated, you include useless statistics regarding covid death rates
and for what?
you cause all this controversy, for what?
Nothing will change
and travel won’t start until the place you are going to can be certain that you don’t have a deadly virus
Make sense???
@T – The CDC is “being manipulated” and I’m including “useless statistics” and I am the one causing controversy? Ok.
The whole point of the piece was that when accommodations were made to combat the virus, it was to flatten the curve, not outright eliminate it. That was never seen or believed to be a viable, imminent option. But now that the curve is flat in the most populous areas travel and life is not opening back up, so it really had nothing to do with the curve and now the goalposts have moved potentially beyond what could be attained in the next few years. Make sense???
Oh yes, the right wing “comorbidities” argument. Because somehow if you had high blood pressure when you caught Covid, it can be presumed to be your fault. And somehow, you’re less dead if Covid tipped over another otherwise manageable condition into your grave.
Right? Well, in a parallel universe, maybe.
One week later – 32 states on the rise, only 3 declining (per NBC).
No, the curve has not flattened.
@UA-NYC – But that is not the curve and this is exactly the point. The flattened curve is with respect to the hospitals ability to treat, not the eradication of the virus. Rising case levels (relative to the week before) does not mean the hospitals are unable to handle the rise in case numbers, nor does an elevated positive test rate necessarily mean that hospitalizations have increased as well (though this is likely.) With respect to total national cases, positive test results are actually down by 300 from last week despite 32 states increasing their local case numbers. Mortality is also halved from the initial months and continues to fall.