While JetBlue plants eleven new flags in Fort Lauderdale, Frontier just quietly took Spirit’s most overlooked Caribbean prize. Almost nobody noticed.
JetBlue Adds Routes From Fort Lauderdale
JetBlue’s Fort Lauderdale announcement was one of many route announcements in the wake of Spirit’s collapse. The carrier added eleven destinations, scaled to roughly 130 daily departures from FLL, and offered Spirit’s silver and gold elites a status match into TrueBlue Mosaic. Part of the merger concern with Spirit and JetBlue was a combined presence in Orlando and Fort Lauderdale. But now without the merger, JetBlue is filling service gaps, at least in south Florida, Central Florida may be next.
San Juan Was A Significant Spirit Station
Spirit’s San Juan operation was the second largest Caribbean network of any US carrier, behind only American’s. Spirit ran nonstop service from SJU to Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, Hartford, Newark, Boston, and the Dominican Republic. For the Puerto Rican diaspora across the northeast and Florida, Spirit was the only ultra-low-fare carrier connecting the island to the mainland. American priced much higher.
Passenger volume mattered more than the route count. DOT origin-and-destination data shows Spirit moved well over a million passengers per year between San Juan and the US mainland in recent years, behind only American and ahead of every other US carrier on the route bank. JetBlue was a distant runner-up. When Spirit ceased operations, those passengers did not disappear. They needed a carrier that could match Spirit’s fare ceiling.
Frontier Steps In
Frontier had been quietly building San Juan capacity all spring. Frontier’s published schedule shows expanded service to Newark, Hartford, Atlanta, and Tampa from San Juan, with frequency increases that began in March, before Spirit’s collapse. Within a week of Spirit’s wind-down, Frontier added incremental flights on the route to Orlando, and Fort Lauderdale that Spirit had dominated. But the JetBlue story received far more attention.
JetBlue runs a substantial San Juan operation already and absorbed some of the displaced traffic, but JetBlue’s pricing in the market is roughly double Frontier’s on most routes. For Puerto Rican diaspora customers flying twice a year to see family, the price ceiling matters more than the legroom. Frontier read the market correctly and moved early. Whether it expands further or is able to hold its ground will reveal itself in the months and years ahead.
Why This Matters For Caribbean Travelers
Fare prices are on the rise everywhere due to the Iran war and fuel prices. However, Puerto Rico is far more price sensitive than the rest of the US.
“Puerto Rico ranks 51st among the US states and Puerto Rico for its fiscal health.” – Mercatus
The cheapest seat in the market for the next ninety days is far more likely to be a Frontier basic economy fare than an American or JetBlue Blue Basic. Frontier’s bag fees are punitive (as was Spirit’s – no change there), but the base fare gap is large enough on most SJU routes that even with two checked bags Frontier wins on round-trip cost. The exception is short stays where Frontier’s schedule does not match the typical weekend visit pattern. JetBlue is more useful there, and worth the premium if your trip is three nights or fewer.
Where Spirit had an advantage was in larger operations in cities like New York (LaGuardia), Orlando, and Fort Lauderdale. Frontier also flies into Tampa, but split some traffic with Sarasota. With these routes serving less-connected Frontier markets, will the carrier be able to hold the line or will it exit some of these markets from San Juan?
Conclusion
Fort Lauderdale and JetBlue route expansion was the headline I saw several times this week. It’s important because part of the reasoning behind blocking the Spirit-JetBlue deal was that the combined carrier would have too much presence in Fort Lauderdale and Orlando. At FLL, that happened anyway. San Juan was the softer replacement because it spanned three months of Frontier schedule changes in the buildup. The carrier most likely to inherit Spirit’s Caribbean customer base did not hold a press conference, it just kept adding flights. By the time the diaspora finishes booking summer travel home, Frontier’s San Juan expansion may be a bigger impact.
What do you think?
A comparison of Frontier and JetBlue fares to their new destinations compared to Spirits would be interesting. Even using the increases we are currently seeing, I’m betting the fares are higher than they were with Spirit.
Then the question remains will the value Spirit customer still travel as often or we will see reduced travel overall? Just an educated guess but I would assume many of the lower end cruise customers (Carnival) also flew Spirit to FLL. Will they also see reduced business if the overall price including airfare becomes prohibition?
The Spirit failure story will be one we will discuss for years.